Solar Activity Report for 11/16/03
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed is close to the 800 km/sec mark tonight as the
Earth remains inside of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream.
Geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed pretty consistently
for the last 48 hours, and aurora have been spotted in the higher
latitudes. This continues the general trend of active conditions
since sunspot region 484 fired off its first M-class flare back on
10/19. Speaking of 484, it's in full view, and now carries the
official designation of sunspot region 501. 484/501 appears to be
substantially smaller than it was the last time around, and while it
has the potential of producing an M-class flare, it doesn't look like
it has major flare potential. Region 486, the source of the strongest
solar flare ever recorded during its last pass, is set to reappear
over the sun's eastern limb in the over the next two days. It
demonstrated significant activity while it was transiting the back
side of the sun, but has actually been fairly quiet since the 13th.
However, the background X-ray flux is steadily rising, and there
appears to be a good loop structure suspended above this now
famous/infamous sunspot region. We'll have a better idea along about
the 18th of exactly what shape 486 is in and what threat it poses.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 54
SFI : 104
A index : 34
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 774.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 6.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 501 is a
minor threat to produce M-class flares throughout the period. Regions
486 and 488 from the previous rotation are due to return by 18
November, and have the potential even now while on the limb to produce
M-class flares, with a very small chance to produce X-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels. The coronal hole which is currently elevating our magnetic
activity will continue to be a driver through day two, abating by
midway through day three.
Recent significant solar flare activity :