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Solar Activity Report for 11/14/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed is over 700 km/sec tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have again been observed within the last 24
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 14, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed is over 700 km/sec tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic
      storm conditions have again been observed within the last 24 hours as
      the effects of the high speed coronal hole solar wind stream continue.
      Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should remain alert for aurora.
      The high solar wind speeds are expected to persist for at least the
      next 48 hours before beginning to subside. Sunspot region 484, now
      christened as sunspot region 501, has emerged over the eastern limb of
      the solar disk. It shot off a pair of M-class flares just as it was
      coming into view, but has been relatively quiet for over 24 hours.
      While it does appear to be smaller than it did during its last
      appearance, it still definitely has the potential for producing a
      major flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 34
      SFI : 99
      A index : 38
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 734.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.1 nPa

      IMF : 13.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 11.1 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a good
      chance for M-class activity out of Region 501, and there is a slight
      chance for major flare activity as well.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels for the next two days (14-15 November). A decline to mostly
      active is expected on the third day (16 November). The effects are
      expected due to the continued influence of a favorably positioned
      coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      13-Nov-2003 0929Z M1.4
      13-Nov-2003 0501Z M1.6
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