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Solar Activity Report for 11/12/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed is still hovering around the 700 km/sec mark tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 12, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed is still hovering around the 700 km/sec mark
      tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
      within the last 24 hours. Therefore, an aurora watch remains in
      effect. In fact, aurora have already been spotted and photographed in
      Alaska, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/images2003/11nov03/Russell1.jpg

      A persistent south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field is helping
      to keep the geomagnetic conditions active. The coronal hole effects
      that are causing the current activity are expected to last for the
      next few days. Sunspot region 498, now rotating out of view over the
      western limb of the solar disk, managed to kick off an M-1 class flare
      on Monday. All eyes, however, are on the eastern limb, where sunspot
      region 484 is expected to come back into view before the end of the
      week. It's anybody's guess how active it will be, but SOHO satellite
      imagery has already shown giant filaments of gas suspended up above
      region 484, and it is still radiating strongly in the ultraviolet
      range. Additionally, the background X-ray flux is starting to rise.
      This could be interesting.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 39
      SFI : 99
      A index : 30
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 698.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 6.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.9 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The most likely
      source of an M-flare is at the east limb near the returning location
      of old active Region 484.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with occasional
      minor storm periods in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      11-Nov-2003 1351Z M1.6
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