Solar Activity Report for 11/12/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed is still hovering around the 700 km/sec mark
tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
within the last 24 hours. Therefore, an aurora watch remains in
effect. In fact, aurora have already been spotted and photographed in
Alaska, as can be seen here :
A persistent south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field is helping
to keep the geomagnetic conditions active. The coronal hole effects
that are causing the current activity are expected to last for the
next few days. Sunspot region 498, now rotating out of view over the
western limb of the solar disk, managed to kick off an M-1 class flare
on Monday. All eyes, however, are on the eastern limb, where sunspot
region 484 is expected to come back into view before the end of the
week. It's anybody's guess how active it will be, but SOHO satellite
imagery has already shown giant filaments of gas suspended up above
region 484, and it is still radiating strongly in the ultraviolet
range. Additionally, the background X-ray flux is starting to rise.
This could be interesting.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 39
SFI : 99
A index : 30
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 698.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa
IMF : 6.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.9 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The most likely
source of an M-flare is at the east limb near the returning location
of old active Region 484.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with occasional
minor storm periods in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
11-Nov-2003 1351Z M1.6