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Solar Activity Report for 11/6/03

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** Today s report can best be summed up in one word. Whew!! The last three weeks have been unprecedented. Sunspot
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 6, 2003
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **

      Today's report can best be summed up in one word. Whew!! The last
      three weeks have been unprecedented. Sunspot region 486 broke
      records. It was the largest sunspot ever observed, and spawned the
      strongest solar flare ever recorded. The final estimate came in at
      X-28. In addition, it fired off several other big X-class flares, and
      triggered aurora that were seen as far south as Orlando, FL and
      southern Texas. Region 486 has finally rotated over the western limb
      of the solar disk. It may be gone, but it most definitely will not be
      soon forgotten! The CME from the X-28 flare brushed past the Earth's
      magnetosphere today, but as predicted, it was a light, glancing blow.
      Nevertheless, G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions were observed, and
      more isolated storm conditions are a possibility tomorrow. After
      that, we should be in for a bit of a respite. Just to keep things at
      least mildly interesting, there is a coronal hole that will soon be
      rotating into an Earth-pointing position, and we could start to see
      the high speed solar wind gusts from it in two or three days. The
      reader might remember that sunspot region 486 was preceeded by some
      strong flares from region 484. A couple of days ago, there was a
      large, full-halo CME. It was a backside event, and directed away from
      Earth. It demonstrated, however, that region 484 is still active, and
      on it's way back around. Starting in about a week, keep and eye out.
      It is entirely possible that these two monster sunspot regions just
      might make a return engagement. For the moment, however, the visible
      surface of the sun is almost completely devoid of sunspots, and the
      sunspot number is the lowest I can remember.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 12
      SFI : 98
      A index : 14
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 551.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa

      IMF : 4.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with
      isolated minor storm levels possible. Active levels with isolated
      minor storm levels are expected on day one. By day two and three
      activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels. The
      greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on day one.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      05-Nov-2003 1052Z M5.3
      05-Nov-2003 0241Z M1.6
      04-Nov-2003 1953Z X28
      04-Nov-2003 1349Z M1.1
      04-Nov-2003 1022Z M3.0
      04-Nov-2003 0556Z M2.6
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