** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
Today's report can best be summed up in one word. Whew!! The last
three weeks have been unprecedented. Sunspot region 486 broke
records. It was the largest sunspot ever observed, and spawned the
strongest solar flare ever recorded. The final estimate came in at
X-28. In addition, it fired off several other big X-class flares, and
triggered aurora that were seen as far south as Orlando, FL and
southern Texas. Region 486 has finally rotated over the western limb
of the solar disk. It may be gone, but it most definitely will not be
soon forgotten! The CME from the X-28 flare brushed past the Earth's
magnetosphere today, but as predicted, it was a light, glancing blow.
Nevertheless, G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions were observed, and
more isolated storm conditions are a possibility tomorrow. After
that, we should be in for a bit of a respite. Just to keep things at
least mildly interesting, there is a coronal hole that will soon be
rotating into an Earth-pointing position, and we could start to see
the high speed solar wind gusts from it in two or three days. The
reader might remember that sunspot region 486 was preceeded by some
strong flares from region 484. A couple of days ago, there was a
large, full-halo CME. It was a backside event, and directed away from
Earth. It demonstrated, however, that region 484 is still active, and
on it's way back around. Starting in about a week, keep and eye out.
It is entirely possible that these two monster sunspot regions just
might make a return engagement. For the moment, however, the visible
surface of the sun is almost completely devoid of sunspots, and the
sunspot number is the lowest I can remember.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 12
SFI : 98
A index : 14
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 551.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa
IMF : 4.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm levels possible. Active levels with isolated
minor storm levels are expected on day one. By day two and three
activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on day one.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
05-Nov-2003 1052Z M5.3
05-Nov-2003 0241Z M1.6
04-Nov-2003 1953Z X28
04-Nov-2003 1349Z M1.1
04-Nov-2003 1022Z M3.0
04-Nov-2003 0556Z M2.6