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Barry

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  • Pawnfart
    http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html Please look at
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 2, 2001
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      <a href=http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html target=new>http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html</a><br><br>Please look at this link under the sub link loop of
      water vapor.<br><br>What I would ask everyone to notice
      is that there is cirrus enhancement to the west of
      the gyre in the Gulf and the basin south of Cuba.
      This enhancement merges near Florida and extends
      hundreds of miles well into the North Atlantic.<br><br>If
      a wave this huge had traveled from Cape Verde later
      in the year, this would have been a cat 5. But
      because of river changes the NHC was debating whether to
      call it a TS. <br><br>I would also mention that there
      has been plenty of time for the flooding from TS
      Allison to reinvigorate the methanogen habitat in the
      Gulf, so while last year at this time of year there was
      NO WAY we would see a Gulf Storm, it is possible
      this one could be another stalling and flooding
      Allison. The further west it goes, the greater rainfall to
      expect out of it. And BTW, it is tracking west because,
      again, that is where the substantial cirrus enhancement
      is--on the western side of the gyre in the Gulf. The
      basin south of Cuba will not, IMHO, because of the
      Venezuela and West Africa dams, be much of a cofactor, even
      as it is one source of it flaring up right now
      during daylight hours.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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