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Solar Activity Report for 11/2/03

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  • David
    ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** After taking a few days off, sunspot region 486 is back, with a vengence. It produced
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 2, 2003
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      ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      After taking a few days off, sunspot region 486 is back, with a
      vengence. It produced two big X-class flares in rapid succession
      today, the largest being an X-8 blast. While region 486 is
      approaching the western limb of the solar disk, and the CME from the
      flare wasn't squarely Earth-directed, there was a halo component to
      it. That means that we will definitely see some effects from it when
      it arrives, most likely Monday, or perhaps early Tuesday. As always,
      who sees what aurora and where depends upon the exact time of arrival,
      and the orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic field will be a key
      factor in how intense the geomagnetic activity is. I had thought that
      region 486 was beginning to calm down, but that obviously isn't the
      case. Keep an eye on the sky, especially Monday night. There could
      well be more aurora to see! If you haven't seen the aurora picture
      gallery yet, I highly recommend a look at it. Some of the pictures
      are breathtaking.

      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01oct03_page8.html

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 174
      SFI : 190
      A index : 24
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 519 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : N/A

      (Note : Solar wind data is again being taken from the SOHO satellite
      since the sensors on NASA's ACE satellite have been overloaded by thge
      proton barrage from today's flare.)

      IMF : 5.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S3 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be extreme.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G5 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R3 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm
      levels beginning on day one near the middle of the day and continuing
      through day two due to the full halo CME that resulted from the X8
      flare from today. Day three may see a return to unsettled to active
      levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      03-Nov-2003 0130Z X2.7
      02-Nov-2003 1725Z X8.3
      02-Nov-2003 1247Z M1.8
      02-Nov-2003 0753Z M1.0
      01-Nov-2003 1751Z M1.1
      01-Nov-2003 0852Z M1.3
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