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Solar Activity Report for 10/30/03

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  • David
    ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** S-3 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The second of the two monster X-class flares
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 30, 2003
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      ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** S-3 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The second of the two monster X-class flares made its effects felt
      today as the CME from the X-10 flare of yesterday struck home. The
      Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung hard south at the time of impact,
      and for a time, a G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm raged. Conditions
      have backed off some from that level, but a G-3 (strong) geomagnetic
      storm is still in progress. The last few days have truly been
      incredible. Never in the hostory of man's observation of the sun have
      two such strong flares come so close to each other. Aurora have been
      seen and photographed in every region of the country, as far south as
      my home state of South Carolina and Texas. Take a look at these links
      for some quite beautiful pictures :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01oct03_page4.html
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01oct03_page5.html
      . Since the two giant flares, solar activity has calmed down, and
      there haven't been any more CME's produced. However, the action may
      not be over yet. Sunspot regions 486 and 488 still have the potential
      for generating another major flare at anytime, it'll be a few days yet
      before they rotate out of view. Looking ahead, there don't appear to
      be any significant sunspot regions rotating into view at this time.
      NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite has recovered and
      is not providing accurate solar wind data once again. Tonight should
      be another good night for aurora watching!

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 293
      SFI : 271
      A index : 147
      K index : 7

      Solar wind speed : 1170.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa

      IMF : 23.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.9 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been extreme. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G5 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S3 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be extreme.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G5 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R3 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels. Region 486 has
      been one of the most active regions of solar cycle 23 and maintains
      strong potential for further major proton flares. Large Region 488
      also contains potential for a major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at major to severe storm
      levels through the first half of day one. The current severe
      geomagnetic storm is expected to gradually subside by the end of day
      one. Unsettled to occasional minor storm periods are possible on day
      two. Mostly unsettled levels are expected by day three. The greater
      than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by day one. The greater
      than 10 MeV proton event will likely persist through day two.

      Recent significant solar flare actviity :
      30-Oct-2003 1528Z M1.5
      30-Oct-2003 0207Z M1.6
      30-Oct-2003 0206Z M1.7
      29-Oct-2003 2049Z X10.0
      29-Oct-2003 0511Z M3.5
      29-Oct-2003 0151Z M1.1
      28-Oct-2003 1110Z X17.2
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