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Solar Activity Report for 10/24/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** In case anybody hasn t noticed somehow, things have been very active for the last couple of days. There are two huge, very active
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 24, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      In case anybody hasn't noticed somehow, things have been very active
      for the last couple of days. There are two huge, very active sunspot
      regions visible, and they've combined to produce of multitude of
      flares and CME's. The CME that hit home today came from the X-5 flare
      of 10/23. When it struck, it triggered a G-3 (strong) geomagnetic
      storm. As powerful as the event was, it could've been much more so.
      The Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been holding a north-pointing
      orientation, which will reinforce Earth's magnetic field and tend to
      diminish geomagnetic activity. Had the CME been carrying a
      south-pointing IMF, the activity level would've been higher. Even so,
      aurora have been seen and photographed as far south as Arizona!
      Here's what's in store for the next several days. Sunspot region 484,
      which started all the action back on the 19th, actually appears to be
      decaying a bit. However, it is still a potential source for a major
      flare. It's squarely in an Earth-pointing position, so if it does
      fire off a big flare, any associated CME will likely be headed our
      way. Of even more interest, however, is sunspot region 486. It has
      been more active than region 484 during the last 48 hours, and 486
      hasn't made it to an Earth-pointing position yet. Therefore, between
      these two monster sunspots, we could be in for a period of active
      conditions as they make their way across the solar disk. A final
      element to the mix is a small coronal hole that is moving into an
      Earth-pointing position. It will serve to keep the overall solar wind
      speed elevated, and contribute to the activity.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 160
      SFI : 191
      A index : 36
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 530.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 18.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure :

      IMF : 13.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are
      expected to produce major flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm
      conditions for day one, due to persistence from the current
      transient-driven activity. Activity should subside to unsettled to
      minor storm levels on days two and three.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      24-Oct-2003 2140Z M1.0
      24-Oct-2003 1856Z M1.3
      24-Oct-2003 0510Z M4.2
      24-Oct-2003 0254Z M7.6
      23-Oct-2003 2004Z X1.1
      23-Oct-2003 1053Z M2.7
      23-Oct-2003 0835Z X5.4
      23-Oct-2003 0708Z M3.2
      23-Oct-2003 0241Z M2.4
      22-Oct-2003 2204Z M2.1
      22-Oct-2003 2007Z M9.9
      22-Oct-2003 1601Z M1.2
      22-Oct-2003 1511Z M1.4
      22-Oct-2003 0956Z M1.7
      22-Oct-2003 0844Z M1.7
      22-Oct-2003 0351Z M3.7
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