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Solar Activity Report for 10/22/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Active conditions on both the solar and geomagnetic fronts continue unabated. Although the solar wind speed has slowed down from
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 22, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Active conditions on both the solar and geomagnetic fronts continue
      unabated. Although the solar wind speed has slowed down from
      yesterday's high of around 770 km/sec, G-2 geomagnetic storm
      conditions have been observed within the last 24 hours, and an aurora
      watch remains in effect. The geomagnetic storms would've been even
      stronger had the Interplanetary Magnetic Field rather suddenly shifted
      to a north-pointing orientation. Active geomagnetic conditions should
      continue over the next couple of days as a result of a chain of
      CME's from sunspot region 484. There have been 13, count 'em, 13
      significant flares from this sunspot region since the 19th, and
      another one that is just now appearing over the eastern limb of the
      solar disk. Region is the largest sunspot to be seen in years, and is
      now bigger than the planet Jupiter. I've counted three partial halo
      CME's, and a rather irregular full-halo CME that happened today. Look
      for more flares from these two very active sunspot regions in the days
      ahead.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 117
      SFI : 154
      A index : 28
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 537.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa

      IMF : 10.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 9.3 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
      level occurred.
      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 484 and
      486 are both capable of producing isolated major flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels
      through day one of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from
      today is expected to arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may
      produce periods of major storming. Day three should see a return to
      unsettled to active conditions.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      23-Oct-2003 0241Z M2.4
      22-Oct-2003 2204Z M2.1
      22-Oct-2003 2007Z M9.9
      22-Oct-2003 1601Z M1.2
      22-Oct-2003 1511Z M1.4
      22-Oct-2003 0956Z M1.7
      22-Oct-2003 0844Z M1.7
      22-Oct-2003 0351Z M3.7
      21-Oct-2003 0827Z M1.0
      20-Oct-2003 0722Z M1.9
      19-Oct-2003 1926Z M1.0
      19-Oct-2003 1650Z X1.1
      19-Oct-2003 0626Z M1.9
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