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Solar Activity Report for 10/20/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** If you didn t know better, you d say that the sun is trying to make up for lost time. The last 48 hours have been quite
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 20, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      If you didn't know better, you'd say that the sun is trying to make up
      for lost time. The last 48 hours have been quite interesting. For
      starters, the solar wind speed is hovering close to the 700 km/sec
      mark. That, coupled with a persistent south-pointing Interplanetary
      Magnetic Field, have served to keep the geomagnetic field active. G-1
      geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
      hours, and more are expected on Tuesday. The biggest news, however,
      is the massive X1.1 flare that happened on the morning of the 19th.
      It was accompanied by a big, bright CME. The source for the activity
      was sunspot region 484, which spans more than nine Earth-diameters end
      to end. Due to the location of this sunspot region, the CME was not
      Earth-directed. We could, however, receive a light, glancing blow
      from it. If you look carefully, you can just see what may be a
      partial halo component to the CME. If region 484 retains its current
      level of activity as it moves into a more Earth-pointing position,
      things could get even more interesting.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot nunmber : 113
      SFI : 135
      A index : 26
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 700.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 5.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
      occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There's a slight
      chance for another isolated X-class flare and an even lesser chance of
      proton activity from Region 484.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels for the next 24 hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for
      isolated periods of minor storming during day two. On day three, the
      faintly Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic
      field, and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
      storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      20-Oct-2003 0722Z M1.9
      19-Oct-2003 1926Z M1.0
      19-Oct-2003 1650Z X1.1
      19-Oct-2003 0626Z M1.9
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