Solar Activity Report for 10/18/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The high speed solar wind continues tonight, and G-1 geomagnetic storm
conditions have been observed within the last 24 hours. An aurora
watch is still in effect. Aurora were spotted and photographed in
Alaska early morning on the 17th, as can be seen here :
. The active conditions are expected to persist for a few more days
as the coronal hole complex that is currently affecting us rotates
around. Also worthy of note is a quite sudden and dramatic increase
in the background X-ray flux. It has been very low as of late due to
the absence of any sunspots worth mentioning, but that appears to be
changing now. This is most likely attributable to the appearance of
sunspot region 484 over the eastern limb of the solar disk. It has
fired off a string of C-class flares, and for the first time in
awhile, there's a legitimate threat for a significant flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 91
SFI : 109
A index : 26
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 599.6
Solar wind density : 4.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.9 nPa
IMF : 6.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days with
Region 484 as the dominant source of activity. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the
next 24 hours. There should be a gradual decline in activity sometime
tomorrow and conditions should be mostly unsettled for the second day.
An increase to mostly active with some minor storm periods is expected
on the third day as a new coronal hole rotates into favorable position
at that time. Today's CME is not expected to directly impact Earth but
might result in a glancing blow that could provide a boost to activity
on the third day.
Recent significant solar flare actviity :