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Solar Activity Report for 10/04/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Geomagnetic activity has definitely picked up in the last couple of days since the Earth has entered a high speed coronal hole
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 14, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Geomagnetic activity has definitely picked up in the last couple of
      days since the Earth has entered a high speed coronal hole solar wind
      stream. The solar wind speed has now topped the 700 km/sec mark. As
      is often the case, there was a strong spike in the geomagnetic
      activity level just as the Earth entered the stream. G-2 geomagnetic
      storm conditions have been observed within the last 24 hours, and some
      aurora have been spotted and photographed in Europe and Canada, as can
      be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01oct03.html .
      The activity is expected to continue for the next few days as the high
      speed solar wind persists, and if the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
      holds onto its south-pointing orientation, excpect to see more
      geomnagnetic storm conditions. While I don't see any visible sunspot
      regions in the SOHO images, the sunspot number isn't zero, so there
      must be some small ones there that aren't readily visible. What's
      somewhat surprising is that the solar flux index is still hovering
      around the 100 mark despite the lack of sunspots.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 24
      SFI : 92
      A index : 40
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 720.6
      Solar wind density : 2.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa

      IMF : 8.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at active to
      minor storm conditions with isolated major storm conditions possible.
      These effects are expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
      stream.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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