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Solar Activity Report for 10/6/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** You could add the word barely to both of the above statements and have it about right.
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 6, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      You could add the word "barely" to both of the above statements and
      have it about right. The Earth is now inside of a high speed coronal
      hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is in the mid 500's.
      The Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been holding solidly onto a
      north-pointing orientation, however, and up until this evening, the
      geomagnetic activity had been relatively subdued. In fact, the IMF is
      still in a north-pointing orientation. Nevertheless, the Planetary K
      index is now showing as a 5, which is G-1 geomagnetic storm level.
      Even with that, however, I wouldn't expect to see widespread aurora
      with a north-pointing IMF. Then again, I didn't expect to see a
      geomagnetic storm pop up, so anything is possible. The elevated solar
      wind speeds should last for about the next 24 hours before slowing
      down. Sunspot region 471 has a slight chance of producing an M-class
      flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 93
      SFI : 112
      A index : 11
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 557.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.1 nPa

      IMF : 5.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight
      chance of an isolated M-class flare from the moderately complex Region
      471.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
      Isolated active conditions are possible on day one due to a recurrent
      high speed coronal hole stream. The remainder of the period should see
      predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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