Solar Activity Report for 10/6/03
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
You could add the word "barely" to both of the above statements and
have it about right. The Earth is now inside of a high speed coronal
hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is in the mid 500's.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been holding solidly onto a
north-pointing orientation, however, and up until this evening, the
geomagnetic activity had been relatively subdued. In fact, the IMF is
still in a north-pointing orientation. Nevertheless, the Planetary K
index is now showing as a 5, which is G-1 geomagnetic storm level.
Even with that, however, I wouldn't expect to see widespread aurora
with a north-pointing IMF. Then again, I didn't expect to see a
geomagnetic storm pop up, so anything is possible. The elevated solar
wind speeds should last for about the next 24 hours before slowing
down. Sunspot region 471 has a slight chance of producing an M-class
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 93
SFI : 112
A index : 11
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 557.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.1 nPa
IMF : 5.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight
chance of an isolated M-class flare from the moderately complex Region
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions are possible on day one due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream. The remainder of the period should see
predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Recent significant solar flare activity :