Solar Activity Report for 10/4/03
- Conditions remain pretty quiet tonight as the solar wind speed drifts
around the 400 km/sec mark. Activity could pick up, however, as the
Earth moves inside of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream in
about 48 hours. The level of activity experienced will depend upon
the orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field at the time the
high speed solar wind arrives. There are two numbered sunspot regions
visible tonight. Of the pair, region 471 looks as if it has the best
chance for generating an M-class flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 89
SFI : 119
A index : 8
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 399.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa
IMF : 4.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 471 is
expected to continue producing C-class flares and possibly an isolated
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day
one. A high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce unsettled to
active levels on days two and three. Isolated minor storm periods are
possible on both days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :