Solar Activity Report for 9/30/03
- All remains quiet tonight as the solar wind speed is languishing
around the 300 km/sec mark. It would seem that the most recent
expected coronal hole encounter with its associated high speed solar
wind is a no-show. Therefore, I don't see anything on the immediate
horizon that's likely to cause any significant activity. Sunspot
region 464 is approaching the western limb of the solar disk, and
while it still has the potential of creating an M-class flare, so far
it's been relatively quiet. The background X-ray flux is steadily
rising, however, so stay tuned.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 116
SFI : 133
A index : 4
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 283.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 5.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.9 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 464 has the
potential for C- and M-class flares. Region 471 may also produce C-
and isolated M-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels. There
exists an isolated chance of unsettled to active conditions from a CME
arrival related to an erupting filament on 28 Sep.
Recent significant solar flare activity :