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Solar Activity Report for 9/25/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The Earth in inside of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream toning, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 25, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The Earth in inside of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream
      toning, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within
      the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is very close to the 600
      km/sec mark, and was up over 700 yesterday. This is the coronal hole
      that I had thought may be too far south on the sun to affect us much,
      but as it turns out, it definitely did. While the coronal hole
      effects should diminish tomorrow, it is expected that the geomagnetic
      conditions will remain active. A disappearing filament fired off a
      CME yesterday, and its arrival should happen sometime this weekend.
      Isolated major storm conditions are possible in the higher latitudes.
      Sunspot region 464 has grown to cover more than 13 Earth-diameters
      end to end, and has also grown in magnetic complexity. There's a
      chance for an M-class flare from this sunspot region.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 122
      SFI : 133
      A index : 29
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 599.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 4.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.6 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Due to the growing
      complexity of Region 464, there may be a chance of an isolated M-class
      flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels
      due to the high speed stream effects. The disappearing solar filament
      from yesterday and the associated ejecta may further enhance the
      geomagnetic field, pushing activity into minor storm levels with
      isolated periods of major storming possible on day two of the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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