Solar Activity Report for 9/25/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth in inside of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream
toning, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is very close to the 600
km/sec mark, and was up over 700 yesterday. This is the coronal hole
that I had thought may be too far south on the sun to affect us much,
but as it turns out, it definitely did. While the coronal hole
effects should diminish tomorrow, it is expected that the geomagnetic
conditions will remain active. A disappearing filament fired off a
CME yesterday, and its arrival should happen sometime this weekend.
Isolated major storm conditions are possible in the higher latitudes.
Sunspot region 464 has grown to cover more than 13 Earth-diameters
end to end, and has also grown in magnetic complexity. There's a
chance for an M-class flare from this sunspot region.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 122
SFI : 133
A index : 29
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 599.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa
IMF : 4.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.6 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Due to the growing
complexity of Region 464, there may be a chance of an isolated M-class
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels
due to the high speed stream effects. The disappearing solar filament
from yesterday and the associated ejecta may further enhance the
geomagnetic field, pushing activity into minor storm levels with
isolated periods of major storming possible on day two of the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :