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Solar Activity Report for 8/20/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** More geomagnetic storm conditions were observed within the last 24 hours as the Earth continues to move through a high speed solar
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 20, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      More geomagnetic storm conditions were observed within the last 24
      hours as the Earth continues to move through a high speed solar wind
      stream. There have been several aurora sightings over northern Europe,
      Canada, and the northern US, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01sep03.html . The
      activiy is expected to last about another day before the solar wind
      speed returns to more normal levels. Right on the heels of the
      coronal hole that has brought us the recent activity is another
      smaller one. That one is also a bit south of the solar equator, so it
      may not have much of an effect. Time will tell. None of the four
      numbered sunspot regions visible appear to have the capability for
      generating a significant flare. However, the background X-ray flux
      has been slowly but steadily rising, and the solar flux index has
      risen slightly, so stay tuned.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 72
      SFI : 112
      A index : 34
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 608.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 4.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. Regions
      464 and 459 are the most likely sources for activity. There is a
      slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24
      hours as the current coronal-hole driven disturbance continues. A
      slight decline to predominantly unsettled to active is expected for
      the second and third days. There is a fair chance for some isolated
      storm periods over the next three days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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