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Star of Isabel

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  • Mike Doran
    If you get a chance to see a visable of Isabel the eye is filled by slits and the center clouds. Let s see if this can be described from an EMF standpoint.
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 12, 2003
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      If you get a chance to see a visable of Isabel the eye is filled by
      slits and the center clouds.

      Let's see if this can be described from an EMF standpoint.

      Last night, I described a number of factors, including the wake of
      Fabian, for a reduced conductivity over oceans where Isabel was
      moving. Also there is an over all pattern, a global pattern, that
      first caused the storm to blow up and then has reduced the over all
      electrical input. The problem is that internally, there is no place
      for the negative charges in the ionosphere created or retained over
      the convection of the storm to go. That is because the dielectric of
      water is about 80 times that of air. With the very high cloud tops
      the line distance between cloud and ocean is huge and the
      charges "wrong" for a shorting to occur, so the electrical
      equallibrium cannot come by strikes, or shorting of direct currrents
      down to the surface. The only thing left is a formation of something
      like this, where the center of the ionosphere becomes a POSITIVE
      point and it is surrounded by a ring of negative voltages which then
      couples to the ocean surface! That is why the shape of the slits are
      in lines and not circles.

      The electrical dynamic of a point POSITIVE ion event is MUCH
      different from a point POSITIVE ion event. The comparisions to
      Andrew are certain to occur, but there are a number of substantial
      differences. Andrew occurred proximate to Mt. Pinatubo's eruption in
      the context of extremely high levels of SOx emissions. Those
      emissions would have increasd the phase change temperature of cirrus
      clouds, much in the winter if where you live it is could you put salt
      on your driveway to melt the ice. Andrew may not have had an issue
      with crossing a track of a previous tropical storm to impact its
      conductivities on the surface, but the SOx issue was huge in its
      electrical dynamic, IMHO. This storm, OTOH, had its electrical
      burst, and now quite clearly is not in the same context and has come
      to a new equillibrium, as a point POSITIVE ion event.

      There are several dangers and differences. First, a point positive
      event will be less likely to be turned, electrically. That is
      significant in that the storm seems to be wobbling. This is nothing
      more than the storm now being more subject to ambiant winds. Last
      night there was a gap in the HP area to the storms north, and it
      jogged slightly north or right and now the HP area or ridge is
      rebuilding and there is actually a noticable left or south turn. If
      the storm were a point negative event, it would hold its course with
      MUCH less influence from upper level winds.

      The storm also is looking more like a tipped egg than a circle.
      Again, the voltages from a point POSITIVE event differ and the
      influence on the cloud behaviors is not as direct. Hence the shape
      is less circular. However, the winds are largely maintained and the
      eye as larger presents a much larger area that at landfall, in its
      present shape, that will cause a damage path. Further, the
      electrical dynamic will be more stable at landfall because the same
      conductivities are not required at the surface--indeed the lack of
      conductivities was the reason this new equallibrium has occurred.

      So at least while it is like this, it is very dangerous for the
      islands because it could erractically move to them and because once
      there the land won't cause as much immediate instability, and there
      will be greater wind damage. It should be able to ride out this
      period of lacking conductivity and regional electrical conditions so
      if it doesn't landfall, it can soon cause a point EMF again.
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