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Solar Activity Report for 8/28/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Conditions have been quiet for the last couple of days, and the solar wind speed is hovering in the mid-400 s km/sec area.
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 28 8:23 PM
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Conditions have been quiet for the last couple of days, and the solar
      wind speed is hovering in the mid-400's km/sec area. Activity could
      pick up a bit within the next 12 - 24 hours. A fairly large CME was
      spotted leaving the sun on the 25th. Judging from the SOHO Lasco
      images, it wasn't squarely Earth directed, and was slow-moving as
      CME's go. However, we could get a glancing blow from it sometime
      tomorrow, which could trigger some activity. In my last report, I
      mentioned that it looked like there was a coronal hole rotating into
      view. It's fully in view now. It's a relatively small one, but we
      should still see some high speed solar wind gusts from it on or about
      Sept 2nd. There are several numbered sunspot regions visible,
      although none of them appear to be capable of producing a large flare.
      There is a slight possibility for a low level M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 124
      SFI : 119
      A index : 21
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 451.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa

      IMF : 7.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 449 has been slightly
      active, and has a slight chance of generating M-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
      the next three days. A slight chance for minor storming exists for the
      next 24 hours due a combination of the continued southward orientation
      of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind
      speeds above 400 km/s.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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