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Solar Activity Report for 8/17/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Criminy! I miss a couple of days, and all heck breaks loose! What s really interesting
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 17, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Criminy! I miss a couple of days, and all heck breaks loose! What's
      really interesting is that it was completely unexpected. Both the
      SOHO and ACE satellites registered a shock wave passage around 1400Z
      Sunday. That surprised some folks, as nobody had thought there was
      anything on the way. A weak full-halo CME was observed on the 14th,
      but it was thought that it was a back side event, and headed directly
      away from us. Surprise!! Just goes to show you that solar and
      geomagnetic forecasting sometimes can be a bit difficult. At any
      rate, when the shock wave hit Earth's magnetosphere, the
      Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply north, which tends to
      suppress geomagnetic activity. However, now it has swung equally
      sharply south, and a geomagnetic storm is in progress. I would not be
      at all surprised if aurora are being seen across Canada and the
      northers US tonight. Whatever it was that kicked off the CME on the
      14th had to have been a pretty weak event to not have even been really
      noticed. As I've said before, however, you don't necessarily need a
      strong flare to fire off a nice CME. Expect the current activity
      conditions to last into Monday before settling down. Then, be on the
      lookout for another coronal hole by the middle of the week.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 113
      SFI : 119
      A index : 14
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 503.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa

      IMF : 19.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 13.0 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with the chance of an
      isolated M-class event from Region 431.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
      day one due to residual effects from the shock. Quiet to unsettled
      levels are expected on day two and day three.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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