Solar Activity Report for 8/14/03
- While the solar wind speed is still elevated due to coronal hole
effects, it is beginning to slack off, and should continue to do so
over the next couple of days as the most recent coronal hole rotates
out of view. Beyond that, with no additional coronal holes coming
into view for the time being, there isn't much happening. There are
only two numbered sunspot regions visible tonight, although one of
them, sunspot regiuon 431, has grown quickly. The background X-ray
flux has risen rather dramatically over the last two days, and by the
way it was rising, I would've though we would have seen a good M-class
flare by now. That isn't the case, however, although region 431
definitely has the potential of producing a significant flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 108
SFI : 130
A index : 19
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 546.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
IMF : 6.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.5 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 431
remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
throughout the interval. A brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole
stream should make way for active conditions on the first two days of
the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled
levels on day three of the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :