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Decadal-Scale NAO Forecast Based on Solar Motion Cycles

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  • hurricaneboy13
    http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/naonew.htm Decadal-Scale NAO Forecast Based on Solar Motion Cycles by Dr Theodor Landscheidt Schroeter Institute for Research
    Message 1 of 2 , Aug 13, 2003
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      Decadal-Scale NAO Forecast
      Based on Solar Motion Cycles

      Dr Theodor Landscheidt

      Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
      Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany


      1. Introduction

      The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) refers to swings in the
      atmospheric sea level pressure differences between the Arctic and
      the subtropical Atlantic. It exerts a strong control on winter
      climate in Europe, North America, and Northern Asia.

      The NAO index is defined as the normalized pressure difference
      between measurements of stations on the Azores and Iceland. A
      positive NAO index indicates a stronger than usual subtropical high
      pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low. The
      increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter
      storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track. This
      results in warm and wet winters in Europe and cold and dry winters
      in Greenland and Northern Canada, while the eastern Unites States
      experience mild and wet winter conditions. A negative NAO index
      points to a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low. The
      reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms
      crossing mostly on west-east paths bringing moist air into the
      Mediterranean and cold air to Northern Europe. The east coast of the
      United States gets more cold air and snow while Greenland enjoys
      mild winters (Hurrell, 1995).

      Despite these significant impacts of the NAO, it is not yet known
      which climate processes govern NAO variability, how the phenomenon
      has varied in the historical past, and to what extent it is
      predictable. Hurrel (2003) holds that the variations in the NAO are
      largely unpredictable as they arise from internal stochastic
      interactions between atmospheric storms and the mean atmospheric
      flow producing random fluctuations. He seems to take it for granted
      that the NAO is a free internal oscillation of the climate system
      not subjected to external forcing. I have shown however
      (Landscheidt, 2001a) that the NAO is closely related to energetic
      solar eruptions. This external forcing is corroborated by evidence
      that other dominant modes of global climate variability like the El
      Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Landscheidt, 2000a) and the
      Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Landscheidt, 2001b) are so
      closely linked to the sun's eruptional activity and special phases
      in solar cycles that long-range forecasts can be based on this
      relationship. The last three El Niños and the course of the last La
      Niña were correctly predicted on this basis years ahead of the
      respective events (Landscheidt, 2002). Moreover, it has been shown
      that the coolest phase of the current cold PDO regime is to be
      expected around 2007 and the next regime shift from cold to warm
      around 2016 (Landscheidt, 2001b).

      The inter-annual forecast of ENSO events has meanwhile been
      completed by a model that predicts El Niño and La Niña activity on a
      decadal scale (Landscheidt, 2003c). A similar model is presented
      here for the NAO. The forecasts cover the first half of this century.

      2. Analysis of yearly NAO index and forecast of NAO trend <![endif]>

      The blue curve in Fig. 1 shows yearly means of the NAO index
      covering the period 1825 to 2002. Jones et al. (1997) used early
      instrumental data to extend this index back to 1825. Data with lots
      of missing values go back to 1821, but were excluded here. The
      index is available at the Climate Research Unit of the University of
      East Anglia (2003). To see the trend, the time series was subjected
      to 30-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorzcak).

      The cyclic pattern of the curve is closely linked to a well-
      investigated solar motion cycle. I have shown that the North
      Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO),
      El Niño and La Niña, extrema in global temperature anomalies,
      drought in Africa and U.S.A., as well as European floods are linked
      to cycles in the sun's irregular orbital motion around the center of
      mass of the solar system (Landscheidt, 1983-2003). The rate of
      change of the sun's orbital angular momentum L - the rotary force
      dL/dt driving the sun's orbital motion (torque) - forms a torque
      cycle with a mean length of 16 years (Landscheidt, 2001a,b).
      Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-
      periodical intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle
      (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years. These zero phases are called
      instances of greatest perturbation in the torque cycle (GPTC). As to
      details, I refer to Figure 2 of my on-line paper "Solar eruptions
      linked to North Atlantic Oscillation" (Landscheidt, 2001 a).

      The GPTC phases play an important role in the long-range forecast of
      diverse climate phenomena. They indicate, for instance, the peaks of
      warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes
      (Landscheidt, 2001b) and are closely linked to extended dry and wet
      spells measured by the U.S. drought index (Landscheidt, 2003 a). As
      to the details and physical implications of the Sun's irregular
      orbital motion I refer to my papers "New Little Ice Age instead of
      global warming?" (Landscheidt, 2003b) and "Extrema in Sunspot Cycle
      Linked to Sun's Motion" (Landscheidt, 1999).

      Another approach to the 35.8-year cycle has been presented in Fig. 3
      of my paper "Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation Subjected to
      Solar Forcing" (Landscheidt, 2001b). It has been shown that
      absolute values of the torque cycle (|dL/dt|) form a shorter cycle
      that plays, e. g., a major role in solar forcing of the North
      Atlantic Oscillation (Landscheidt, 2001a) and discharges in river
      catchment areas (Landscheidt, 2000c,d). When a Gaussian low-pass
      filter suppressing wavelengths shorter than 9 years is applied to
      |dL/dt|, new oscillations emerge as shown in Fig. 3 of the quoted
      paper for 1721 - 2077. Minima in the smoothed |dL/dt|-curve are
      identical with initial phases GPTC in the perturbation cycle. So it
      is easy to compute the precise dates of these phases for any period.
      Within the range of the investigated NAO index, GPTCs fall at
      1829.5, 1867.2, 1901.8, 1933.6, 1968.9, and beyond that range at
      2007.2, 2044.9., and 2080.7.

      In nearly all of my papers I could show that there are phase
      reversals in the climate time series related to solar motion cycles
      (Landscheidt 1983-2003). These are not ad hoc inventions, but
      computable phases of instability that occur when the zero phase of a
      longer solar motion cycle coincides with a zero phase of a shorter
      solar motion cycle. The arrow in Fig. 1 indicates a zero phase of
      the 179-year cycle, described in my paper "Decadal-scale variations
      in El Niño intensity" (Landscheidt, 2003c), which coincides with the
      GPTC phase 1901.8.

      After the phase reversal around 1902, all deep minima in the NAO
      curve coincide with GPTCs indicated by red triangles. Before 1902
      the relationship is reversed. GPTCs go along with outstanding
      maxima in the curve. Only GPTC 1829.5 does not fit. This could be
      an effect of the deteriorating quality of the earliest data in the
      index reconstruction. The green triangles point to zero phases of
      the second harmonic of the perturbation cycle (SHPC) in between
      GPTCs. After the phase reversal they consistently coincide with
      maxima in the NAO curve and before 1902 with minima.

      The extended maximum between 1890 and 1920 can be explained by the
      phase reversal. After the GPTC 1901.8, going along with a maximum, a
      minimum was to be expected in the regular course of the
      oscillation. Instead, another maximum appeared because of the phase
      reversal. The situation is comparable to the Medieval Maximum of
      solar activity that can also be explained by such a phase reversal
      (Landscheidt, 2003b). Another extended NAO maximum of this kind is
      not to be expected in the foreseeable future as the next phase
      reversal related to a zero phase in the 179-year cycle will not
      occur before 2080.

      Accordingly, the oscillatary pattern established after the phase
      reversal should stay stable. A forecast of the NAO trend can be read
      from Fig. 1. Deep minima in the trend curve are to be expected
      around 2007 and 2044 and an outstanding maximum around 2026.

      3. Analysis and forecast of NAO winter season

      The effects of the NAO are most noticeable in the winter months
      December to March (Jones et al, 1997). The blue curve in Fig 2 shows
      these seasonal values. They were subjected to Gaussian kernel
      smoothing (Lorzcak) with a narrower 15-year moving window to get a
      more detailed trend perspective. As can be seen from the figure,
      the pattern after the phase reversal is nearly the same as in Fig. 1
      so that there is no need to formulate a more differentiated trend
      forecast. There is, however, some change in the period before the
      phase reversal. The SHPCs (green triangles) are related to maxima,
      as after 1902, and more frequent minima go along with the fourth
      harmonic of the 35.8-year perturbation cycle (FHPC) indicated by
      smaller triangles in cyan colour. Theoretically, this is
      interesting, but it has no effect on the development in the
      foreseeable future.

      4. Link between NAO and solar eruptions

      I have shown in several papers that energetic solar eruptions
      (coronal mass ejections, flares, and eruptive prominences) have a
      strong effect on diverse climate phenomena including El Niño and La
      Niña (Landscheidt, 1983-2003). So it suggests itself to investigate
      whether energetic solar eruptions are connected with NAO variations,
      too. Not all strong solar eruptions have an impact on the near-Earth
      environment. The effect at Earth depends on the heliographic
      position of the eruption and conditions in interplanetary space.
      Indices of geomagnetic activity measure the response to those
      eruptions that actually affect the Earth. Mayaud's aa index (Mayaud,
      1973; Coffey, 1958-1999) is homogeneous and covers a long period
      back to 1868. So I compared the aa index with the NAO data of this

      Figure 3 shows the result. The red curve represents yearly means of
      the aa index, normalized to the standard deviation and subjected to
      30-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorzcak). The blue
      curve shows the yearly NAO index treated in the same way. Between
      1940 and present the two time series show a clear positive
      correlation. The correlation coefficient is as high as r = 0.81 and
      explains 66 percent of the variance. Also from 1868 to 1890 the
      correlation is positive and strong: r = 0.80. Between 1890 and 1940,
      however, the correlation is negative and reaches r = - 0.83.
      Bootstrap re-sampling, making use of 500,000 samples drawn at random
      from the observed set, shows that there is less than 1 chance in
      50,000 to falsely reject the sceptic null hypothesis of no

      The change in the sign of correlation is not as strange as it seems
      at first sight. It is a first indication that the quality of the
      solar effect on climate depends on the level of solar activity. The
      red curve in Fig. 3 shows clearly that the sun's eruptional activity
      was much weaker before 1940 than afterwards. It will be rather
      difficult to explain the different effect of high and low solar
      activity in strict physical terms, but there are at least
      indications now where to search for explanations.

      Revealingly, the correlation between NAO and sunspot numbers R is
      much weaker than between NAO and aa. Between 1868 and 1890 and 1940
      to present it is smaller than r = 0.5. This corroborates the
      hypothesis put forward in nearly all of my papers that the sun's
      eruptional activity is the most potent driving force behind climatic
      change, much stronger than the relatively weak variations in the
      sun's irradiance in the course of the 11-year sunspot cycle. As GCMs
      do not take the effect of solar eruptions into account, they do not
      reflect reality.

      5. Background and Outlook

      It is to be expected that the presented results will be dismissed as
      a statistical artifact as there is no detailed causal explanation of
      the relationship between NAO and solar eruptions in strict terms of
      physics. Yet how could this be done as long as climatologists have
      no physical explanation of the NAO. The positive and negative modes
      of this phenomenon establish covariations, but do not explain them
      (Leroux, 2003). Only a few years ago Wanner (1999) commented: "How
      and why does the NAO see-saw from one mode to another? … Despite
      many studies this question remains open and the mechanism of the
      flip flop quite mysterious." Quite recently Hurrell (2003), a
      specialist at NAO research, conceded that "many open issues remain
      about which climate processes govern NAO variability…" Hopefully,
      Mobile Polar High (MPH) dynamics as described by Leroux (1993, 2003)
      will contribute to a solution of the problem. <![endif]>

      IPCC proponents prayer-wheel-wise repeat the mantra that in recent
      decades the effect of solar activity on climate has marvellously
      disappeared. Figures 1 to 3 and the statistical analysis of the
      correlation between the aa index and NAO up to the present show
      clearly that with regard to the North Atlantic Oscillation this is
      not true. Just in the decades 1970 to present the correlation
      between aa and NAO is closest and reaches r = 0.97. Earlier
      investigations have shown that in recent decades the other dominant
      modes of climate variability, ENSO and PDO, have been subjected to
      such strong solar forcing that forecasts can be based on this
      relationship (Landscheidt, 2001b, 2002). So the textbook tenet that
      NAO, ENSO, and PDO are free internal oscillations of the climate
      system not subjected to external forcing is no longer tenable and
      the claim that the solar effect has not been observed for decades is
      inconsistent with facts.

      Fig. 2 shows that there have been strong variations in the NAO index
      in recent decades. Hurrell (2003) thinks that they
      provide "relatively strong evidence that … increases in greenhouse
      gas concentrations are influencing the recent behaviour of the
      NAO." Here he seems to suppose that solar forcing is negligible.
      The presented results show that this conclusion is not justified.

      IPCC proponents continue to contend that there are no professional
      physical models that could explain the effect of solar eruptions on
      climate. In Chapter 4 of my paper "Long-range forecast of U.S.
      drought based on solar activity" I have given an overview of such
      models (Landscheidt, 2003a). Meanwhile, Benestad (2002) has written
      a book on "Solar Activity and Earth's Climate" which reviews the
      rich literature on physical explanations of the widely reported
      correlations between magnetic activity in the outer layers of the
      sun and changes in weather and climate on planet Earth up to 2001
      (Tinsley, 2003). It is a valuable update of the comprehensive
      review by Herman and Goldberg (1978) propagated by NASA before the
      beginning of the global warming debate. I am not optimistic enough
      to assume that IPCC adherents will read this book, but I am
      convinced that it will stimulate research by unprejudiced
      independent scientists so that, some day, a detailed physical
      explanation of the relationship between solar eruptions and
      variations in the NAO will be found.


      References <![endif]>

      Benestad, R. (2002): Solar activity and Earth's climate. Springer,
      New York.

      Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (2003):

      Coffey, H. E.,ed. (1958-1999): Solar-Geophysical Data Center,
      Boulder http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/projpages/nao_update.htm <!

      Hurrell, J. W. (1995): Decadal trends in the North Atlantic
      Oscillation and relationships to regional temperatures and
      precipitation. Science 269, 676-679.

      Hurrell, J. W. (2003): The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic
      significance and environmental effect. EOS 84, No. 8, 25 February
      2003, 73.

      Jones, P. D., Jonsson, T., and Wheeler, D. (1997): Extension to the
      North Atlantic Oscillation using early istrumental pressure
      observations from Gibraltar and south-West Iceland. Int. J.
      Climatol. 17, 1433-1450.

      Landscheidt, T. (1983): Solar oscillations, sunspot cycles, and
      climatic change. In: McCormac, B. M., ed.: Weather and climate
      responses to solar variations. Boulder, Associated University Press,
      293-308. <![endif]>

      Landscheidt, T. (1984): Cycles of solar flares and weather. In:
      Moerner, N.A. und Karlén, W., eds..: Climatic changes on a yearly to
      millenial basis. Dordrecht, D. Reidel, 475, 476.

      Landscheidt, T. (1986 a): Long-range forecast of energetic x-ray
      bursts based on cycles of flares. In: Simon, P. A., Heckman, G., and
      Shea, M. A., eds.: Solar-terrestrial predictions. Proceedings of a
      workshop at Meudon, 18.-22. Juni 1984. Boulder, National Oceanic and
      Atmospheric Administration, 81-89.

      Landscheidt, T. (1987): Long-range forecasts of solar cycles and
      climate change. In: Rampino, M. R., Sanders, J. E., Newman, W. S.
      and Königsson, L. K., eds.: Climate. History, Periodicity, and
      predictability. New York, van Nostrand Reinhold, 421-445.

      Landscheidt, T. (1988): Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in
      the Sun's motion, and climatic variation. Clim. Change 12, 265-295.

      Landscheidt, T.(1990): Relationship between rainfall in the northern
      hemisphere and impulses of the torque in the Sun's motion. In: K. H.
      Schatten and A. Arking, eds.: Climate impact of solar variability.
      Greenbelt, NASA, 259-266.

      Landscheidt, T. (1995b): Die kosmische Funktion des Golde­nen
      Schnitts. In: Richter, P. H., ed.: Sterne, Mond und Kometen. Bremen,
      Hauschild, 240-276.

      Landscheidt, T. (1998 a): Forecast of global temperature, El Niño,
      and cloud coverage by astronomical means. In: Bate, R., ed.: Global
      Warming. The continuing debate. Cambridge, The European Science and
      Environment Forum (ESEF), 172-183.

      Landscheidt, T. (1998 b): Solar activity - A dominant factor in
      climate dynamics. http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

      Landscheidt, T. (2000 a): Solar forcing of El Niño and La Niña. In:
      Vázquez , M. and Schmieder, B, ed.: The solar cycle and terrestrial
      climate. European Space Agency, Special Publication 463, 135-140.

      Landscheidt, T. (2000 b): Solar wind near Earth: Indicator of
      variations in global temperature. In: Vázquez, M. and Schmieder, B,
      ed.: The solar cycle and terrestrial climate. European Space Agency,
      Special Publication 463, 497-500.

      Landscheidt, T. (2000 c): River Po discharges and cycles of solar
      activity. Hydrol. Sci. J. 45, 491-493.

      Landscheidt, T. (2000 d): New confirmation of strong solar forcing
      of climate. http://www.john-daly.com/po.htm.

      Landscheidt, T. (2001 a): Solar eruptions linked to North Atlantic
      Oscillation. http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/solarnao.htm

      Landscheidt, T. (2001 b): Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation
      subjected to solar forcing. http://www.john-

      Landscheidt, T. (2002): El Niño forecast revisited. http://www.john-

      Landscheidt,T. (2003 a): Long-range forecast of U.S. drought based
      on solar activity.

      Landscheidt, T. (2003 b): New Little Ice Age instead of global
      warming. Energy and Environment 14, 327-350

      Landscheidt, T. (2003c): Decadal scale variations in El Niño
      intensity. http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/DecadalEnso.htm.

      Leroux, M. (1993): The Mobile Polar High. Global and Planet. Change
      7, 69-93.

      Leroux, M. (2003): Global warming: Myth or reality. Energy &
      Environment, Vol. 14, Nos . 3 and 4, 297-322

      Mayaud, P. N. (1973): A hundred year series of geomagnetic data 1868-
      1967. IAGA Bulletin No. 33, IUGG Publications Office, Paris.

      Tinsley, B. (2003): Book review: Solar activity and Earth's climate.

      Wanner, H. (1999): Le balancier de l'Atlantique Nord. La Recherche
      321, 72-73.

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    • Mike Doran
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/1746 http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/1898 There is no doubt that solar
      Message 2 of 2 , Aug 13, 2003
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        There is no doubt that solar changes operate in such cycles as the
        NAO as a signal, a forcing, but the problem is that it is not one
        that is controlling, rather it is a MODULATED signal, and that
        modulation occurs LOCALLY, via the biosphere.

        Thus the study is FUNDIMENTALLY flawed in terms of where it attempts
        to go. EG chaos was, chaos is, burn fossil fuels.

        It's local modulation was, modulation is, don't create defects in
        electrical and biological feedback loops which are at the heart of a
        living earth. Theodore isn't a biologist nor does he have EMF
        training to get to the cause of the patterns involved here, to
        understand the signals and the noise and the modulations. His
        approach is fundimentally a strawman, that goes to the adage that
        there are lies, dang lies, and statistics.
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