** Aurora Watch in Effect **
You wouldn't necessarily know it to look at the solar wind speed, but
the Earth entered a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream today.
Actually, the solar wind speed has risen some from yesterday.
However, the main indicator came when a G-3 (strong) geomagnetic storm
was detected earlier today. There is often a spike in geomagnetic
activity when the Earth crosses the boundary of a high speed solar
wind stream. This time, the effect was intensified when the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field took on a persistent south-pointing
orientation at the time of the boundary crossing. The active
geomagnetic conditions are expected to last for at least the next 48
hours before settling down again. Actually, I wouldn't be at all
surprised to see the elevated conditions last longer than that, as
this coronal hole covers a pretty large piece of solar territory.
Sunspot region 424 also got into the act by kicking off an M-class
flare on Tuesday.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 155
SFI : 129
A index : 45
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 492.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.4 nPa
IMF : 7.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 424 may
produce C-class flares and isolated M-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
Geomagnetic activity for the next two days is expected to be unsettled
to active, with isolated minor storm conditions, due to the increased
solar wind stream from an associated coronal hole in geoeffective
position. On day three, geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to
unsettled conditions, as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective
Recent significant solar flare activity :
05-Aug-2003 1249Z M1.7