Solar Activity Report for 8/4/03
- As per predictions, the solar wind speed has dropped, and the recent
geomagnetic activity has stopped, at least for the time being. This
most recent round of activity was pretty impressive, creating aurora
displays in various locations for most of a week, and spiking the
solar wind speed at over 900 km/sec. It just goes to show you that
you don't need a strong flare to make interesting things happen.
Speaking of interesting things, we'll probably be in for some more
action starting in about 48 hours. Another coronal hole has rotated
into an Earth-pointing position. Look for the high speed solar wind
gusts to be arriving on or about Wednesday. The latter half of the
week could see some more aurora displays. Also keep an eye on sunspot
region 424, which has just rotated into view. It has the potential
for generating some M-class flares in the days ahead. Even though we
are indeed on the downside of Cycle 23, it's not uncommon to see
periodic, temporary surges in overall solar activity, and contrary to
what I've seen on some of the conspiracy websites, the sun is NOT
"going crazy." Trust me, if it were, you'd know it!
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 138
SFI : 123
A index : 17
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 454.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 9.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.4 nPa
IMF : 7.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 7.6 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible from
Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has slight potential to produce an
isolated M-class flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to
unsettled levels through day one with isolated active periods likely
again. A large equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
position by day two and produce unsettled to minor storm conditions
through the remainder of the period. Isolated major storm periods at
higher latitudes are expected on day three.
Recent significant solar flare activity :