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Solar Activity Report for 8/4/03

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  • David
    As per predictions, the solar wind speed has dropped, and the recent geomagnetic activity has stopped, at least for the time being. This most recent round of
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 4, 2003
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      As per predictions, the solar wind speed has dropped, and the recent
      geomagnetic activity has stopped, at least for the time being. This
      most recent round of activity was pretty impressive, creating aurora
      displays in various locations for most of a week, and spiking the
      solar wind speed at over 900 km/sec. It just goes to show you that
      you don't need a strong flare to make interesting things happen.
      Speaking of interesting things, we'll probably be in for some more
      action starting in about 48 hours. Another coronal hole has rotated
      into an Earth-pointing position. Look for the high speed solar wind
      gusts to be arriving on or about Wednesday. The latter half of the
      week could see some more aurora displays. Also keep an eye on sunspot
      region 424, which has just rotated into view. It has the potential
      for generating some M-class flares in the days ahead. Even though we
      are indeed on the downside of Cycle 23, it's not uncommon to see
      periodic, temporary surges in overall solar activity, and contrary to
      what I've seen on some of the conspiracy websites, the sun is NOT
      "going crazy." Trust me, if it were, you'd know it!

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 138
      SFI : 123
      A index : 17
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 454.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 9.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.4 nPa

      IMF : 7.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 7.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible from
      Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has slight potential to produce an
      isolated M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to
      unsettled levels through day one with isolated active periods likely
      again. A large equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
      position by day two and produce unsettled to minor storm conditions
      through the remainder of the period. Isolated major storm periods at
      higher latitudes are expected on day three.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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