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Solar Activity Report for 7/21/03

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  • David
    The most recent round of geomagnetic activity has died down with the solar wind speed, as the Earth has exited the high speed solar wind stream it has been
    Message 1 of 2 , Jul 21, 2003
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      The most recent round of geomagnetic activity has died down with the
      solar wind speed, as the Earth has exited the high speed solar wind
      stream it has been inside of the past few days. The solar wind speeds
      have dropped down into the low 400's. Sunspot region 410 has grown
      rather dramatically, although it doesn't have the magnetic complexity
      that would indicate that it could be a potential source for a major
      flare. A M-class flare, however, is not out of the question. The
      sunspot number is higher that it has been in awhile with six numbered
      sunspot regions visible, but there hasn't been any significant flare
      activity to show for it. Looking further down the road, a coronal
      hole has rotated into view over the eastern limb of the solar disk,
      and could be a factor by the weekend.

      The current solar and geomagnetic contitions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 219
      SFI : 156
      A index : 13
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 439.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa

      IMF : 7.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar Activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an
      M-class flare from Region 410.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
      isolated active periods over the next three days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • mike
      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/358953.stm http://www.earthfiles.com/news/news.cfm?ID=555&category=Science Comments: From 1998 to 2002 we had four
      Message 2 of 2 , Jul 21, 2003
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        http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/358953.stm

        http://www.earthfiles.com/news/news.cfm?ID=555&category=Science

        Comments:

        From 1998 to 2002 we had four years of La Nina.

        We also had a solar max. How can this be?

        The problem w/ the assumptions of the solarists is they directly couple
        solar output with earth input toward a particular climate state. When
        indeed, a signal and noise ratio on the receiving end causes climate, and
        that signal getting amplified properly depends more directly on the
        biosphere for modulation.

        Let’s see if we can describe it. During El Nino, there is up welling of
        nutrients in the tropical West Pacific-and that leads to warm (and
        conductive) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and cold but biologically
        active conditions that leads, overall, to a warmer electrical dynamic in
        terms of cloud cover.

        During La Nina the biological conductivity enhancement stays in the
        colder waters.

        Failing to look at the bio side of the modulation will always be a
        problem for chaos/thermal idiots.

        It’s much like when you are hot you sweat and cold you shiver, only the
        subject of climate change is really the subject of global fever. Hence,
        when you get a virus you have a fever, when you take aspirin that fever
        drops and so forth. Fossil fuels are all about fevers to the biosphere,
        because CO2 is ELECTRICALLY and biologically significant.

        ++++++

        Meanwhile, the buzz in climate respects cosmic rays. The plane of our
        galaxy has much more cosmic energy, and the solar system wobbles back and
        forth in that plane. That cosmic energy is now linked to the glacial
        periods. Sadly, the false skeptics, quick to point out thermal aspects
        of the sun, have difficulty with an electrical based forcing. Too bad,
        because then they miss the biological modulation of these EMFs . . ..
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