Solar Activity Report for 7/21/03
- The most recent round of geomagnetic activity has died down with the
solar wind speed, as the Earth has exited the high speed solar wind
stream it has been inside of the past few days. The solar wind speeds
have dropped down into the low 400's. Sunspot region 410 has grown
rather dramatically, although it doesn't have the magnetic complexity
that would indicate that it could be a potential source for a major
flare. A M-class flare, however, is not out of the question. The
sunspot number is higher that it has been in awhile with six numbered
sunspot regions visible, but there hasn't been any significant flare
activity to show for it. Looking further down the road, a coronal
hole has rotated into view over the eastern limb of the solar disk,
and could be a factor by the weekend.
The current solar and geomagnetic contitions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 219
SFI : 156
A index : 13
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 439.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 7.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.2 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar Activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an
M-class flare from Region 410.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods over the next three days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
From 1998 to 2002 we had four years of La Nina.
We also had a solar max. How can this be?
The problem w/ the assumptions of the solarists is they directly couple
solar output with earth input toward a particular climate state. When
indeed, a signal and noise ratio on the receiving end causes climate, and
that signal getting amplified properly depends more directly on the
biosphere for modulation.
Lets see if we can describe it. During El Nino, there is up welling of
nutrients in the tropical West Pacific-and that leads to warm (and
conductive) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and cold but biologically
active conditions that leads, overall, to a warmer electrical dynamic in
terms of cloud cover.
During La Nina the biological conductivity enhancement stays in the
Failing to look at the bio side of the modulation will always be a
problem for chaos/thermal idiots.
Its much like when you are hot you sweat and cold you shiver, only the
subject of climate change is really the subject of global fever. Hence,
when you get a virus you have a fever, when you take aspirin that fever
drops and so forth. Fossil fuels are all about fevers to the biosphere,
because CO2 is ELECTRICALLY and biologically significant.
Meanwhile, the buzz in climate respects cosmic rays. The plane of our
galaxy has much more cosmic energy, and the solar system wobbles back and
forth in that plane. That cosmic energy is now linked to the glacial
periods. Sadly, the false skeptics, quick to point out thermal aspects
of the sun, have difficulty with an electrical based forcing. Too bad,
because then they miss the biological modulation of these EMFs . . ..