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Solar Activity Report for 7/17/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** For the second time in a week, aurora were spotted in the continental US on the night of the 16th. The reason is the high speed
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 17, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      For the second time in a week, aurora were spotted in the continental
      US on the night of the 16th. The reason is the high speed solar wind
      stream coming from a coronal hole, which the Earth is still inside of.
      The geomagnetic activity has mostly subsided for the moment, but the
      solar wind speed is still above 600 km/sec, so more geomagnetic storm
      conditions are possible for the next 24 hours. After that, things
      should calm down a bit. While there haven't been any significant
      flares, the space weather forecasts are saying we could be seeing the
      arrival in about three days of a CME that originated from a C-9 class
      flare that occurred earlier today. Sunspot regions 409 and 410 have
      at least a small chance of producing an M-class flare, and the
      background X-ray flux is incereasing, so keep an eye on that in the
      days ahead.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 189
      SFI : 139
      A index : 26
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 617.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 4.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low but there is a chance for
      an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with regions 409,
      410, and 412 the most likely sources.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a few
      isolated active periods for the next two days. Unsettled to active
      levels are expected for the third day. The increase on day three may
      occur as a possible response to activity associated with today's C9
      flare event.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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