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Solar Activity Report for 7/15/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed remains elevated tonight due to coronal hole effects, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 15, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed remains elevated tonight due to coronal hole
      effects, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
      within the last 24 hours. Look for the solar wind speed to stay
      elevated for the next 48 hours, and more geomagnetic storm conditions
      are a possibility during the period. Skywatchers in the higher
      latitudes should be on the lookout for aurora. Sunspot region 409,
      having newly rotated into view over the eastern limb of the solar
      disk, looks as if it may have an isolated chance of producing an
      M-class flare. However, judging from the steady decline in the
      background X-ray flux, I wouldn't expect to see anything major for the
      time being. The solar wind speeds will start declining in about three
      days or so.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 154
      SFI : 126
      A index : 27
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 552.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa

      IMF : 11.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next three
      days, with Region 409 as the most likely source of M-class flares.
      There is a slight chance for major flare activity from Region 409 if
      the current trend continues.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be active, with a chance for
      isolated minor storm periods, during the next 24 hours as a solar
      coronal hole rotates through a geoeffective position. A decline to
      unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day and a return
      to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third day.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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