Solar Activity Report for 7/15/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed remains elevated tonight due to coronal hole
effects, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
within the last 24 hours. Look for the solar wind speed to stay
elevated for the next 48 hours, and more geomagnetic storm conditions
are a possibility during the period. Skywatchers in the higher
latitudes should be on the lookout for aurora. Sunspot region 409,
having newly rotated into view over the eastern limb of the solar
disk, looks as if it may have an isolated chance of producing an
M-class flare. However, judging from the steady decline in the
background X-ray flux, I wouldn't expect to see anything major for the
time being. The solar wind speeds will start declining in about three
days or so.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 154
SFI : 126
A index : 27
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 552.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa
IMF : 11.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.4 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next three
days, with Region 409 as the most likely source of M-class flares.
There is a slight chance for major flare activity from Region 409 if
the current trend continues.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active, with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods, during the next 24 hours as a solar
coronal hole rotates through a geoeffective position. A decline to
unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day and a return
to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third day.
Recent significant solar flare activity :