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Solar Activity Report for 7/13/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** On the 12th, a strong G-3 geomagnetic storm continued for hours. It was brought on by a high speed solar wind stream coming from
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 13, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      On the 12th, a strong G-3 geomagnetic storm continued for hours. It
      was brought on by a high speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal
      hold and the solar wind speeds were in excess of 600 km/sec. The end
      result was aurora seen in the northern tier of the US as well as
      Canada and northern Europe. See this link for some great aurora
      pictures :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01jul03.html .
      The solar wind speed has since abated, and is now hovering around 500
      km/sec. That is still a bit above normal, and an aurora watch remains
      in effect. This relatively calm period won't last for long, however.
      Another coronal hole is rotating into an Earth-pointing position, and
      will be sending more high speed solar wind our way on or about the
      15th. There was an M-class flare on the 12th, which appeared to
      originate from just over the eastern limb of the solar disk. Stay
      tuned to see what sort of sunspot region rotates into view over the
      next couple of days.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : N/A
      SFI : 127
      A index : 18
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 494.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 5.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for
      an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with Regions 409
      and 401 the most likely sources.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next
      three days. Some persistence of today's activity is expected to linger
      into tomorrow. It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime
      during the next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of
      the recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate
      the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making
      transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of
      effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two or
      day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position.

      Recent significant solar flare actvity :
      12-Jul-2003 1906Z M1.4
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