Solar Activity Report for 7/13/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
On the 12th, a strong G-3 geomagnetic storm continued for hours. It
was brought on by a high speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal
hold and the solar wind speeds were in excess of 600 km/sec. The end
result was aurora seen in the northern tier of the US as well as
Canada and northern Europe. See this link for some great aurora
The solar wind speed has since abated, and is now hovering around 500
km/sec. That is still a bit above normal, and an aurora watch remains
in effect. This relatively calm period won't last for long, however.
Another coronal hole is rotating into an Earth-pointing position, and
will be sending more high speed solar wind our way on or about the
15th. There was an M-class flare on the 12th, which appeared to
originate from just over the eastern limb of the solar disk. Stay
tuned to see what sort of sunspot region rotates into view over the
next couple of days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : N/A
SFI : 127
A index : 18
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 494.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 5.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for
an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with Regions 409
and 401 the most likely sources.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next
three days. Some persistence of today's activity is expected to linger
into tomorrow. It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime
during the next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of
the recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate
the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making
transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of
effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two or
day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position.
Recent significant solar flare actvity :
12-Jul-2003 1906Z M1.4