** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth has moved inside of a coronal hole solar wind stream, and
the solar wind has topped the 550 km/sec mark. At one time today, G-2
(moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed, and the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had a south-pointing orientation
for much of the day. For those who may not remember, a north-pointing
IMF will tend to reinforce Earth's magnetic field. A south-pointing
one, however, will weaken it, and allow solar wind gusts to penetrate
deeper down. Since we are still in SOHO's "blackout" period, data
from the spacecraft is somewhat sporadic. However, the space weather
folks say that we may be in for a CME from the M3.6 flare of 7/10 in
about three days. The LASCO coronagraph images from that time period
are not on SOHO's website, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.
It's always possible that the images are available but just haven't
been posted for whatever reason. At any rate, look for the solar wind
speed to stay elevated for the next several days, and geomagnetic
storm conditions are a possibility, especially in the higher
latitudes. Sunspot region 401 has at least an outside chance of
producing an M-class flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 127
SFI : 122
A index : 40
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 555.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.8 nPa
IMF : 12.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 8.5 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. With continued growth,
Region 401 may become capable of producing isolated M-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at both
middle and high latitudes, especially during nighttime hours due to
high speed coronal hole stream effects throughout the period. Day
three may see further elevated conditions due to an anticipated
transient passage from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
10-Jul-2003 1412Z M3.6