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Solar Activity Report for 7/11/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The Earth has moved inside of a coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind has
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 11, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The Earth has moved inside of a coronal hole solar wind stream, and
      the solar wind has topped the 550 km/sec mark. At one time today, G-2
      (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed, and the
      Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had a south-pointing orientation
      for much of the day. For those who may not remember, a north-pointing
      IMF will tend to reinforce Earth's magnetic field. A south-pointing
      one, however, will weaken it, and allow solar wind gusts to penetrate
      deeper down. Since we are still in SOHO's "blackout" period, data
      from the spacecraft is somewhat sporadic. However, the space weather
      folks say that we may be in for a CME from the M3.6 flare of 7/10 in
      about three days. The LASCO coronagraph images from that time period
      are not on SOHO's website, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.
      It's always possible that the images are available but just haven't
      been posted for whatever reason. At any rate, look for the solar wind
      speed to stay elevated for the next several days, and geomagnetic
      storm conditions are a possibility, especially in the higher
      latitudes. Sunspot region 401 has at least an outside chance of
      producing an M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 127
      SFI : 122
      A index : 40
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 555.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 5.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.8 nPa

      IMF : 12.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 8.5 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. With continued growth,
      Region 401 may become capable of producing isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
      active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at both
      middle and high latitudes, especially during nighttime hours due to
      high speed coronal hole stream effects throughout the period. Day
      three may see further elevated conditions due to an anticipated
      transient passage from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      10-Jul-2003 1412Z M3.6
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