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Solar Activity Report for 7/5/03

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  • David
    While the solar wind speed remains well above 600 km/sec, there hasn t been any geomagnetic activity to speak of to go along with it. Still, however, there is
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 5, 2003
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      While the solar wind speed remains well above 600 km/sec, there hasn't
      been any geomagnetic activity to speak of to go along with it. Still,
      however, there is still that possibility, and we may see some G-1
      geomagnetic storm conditions as long as the solar wind speed remains
      high. Look for that to continue for about the next 24 hours before
      the solar wind speed starts returning to a more normal level. While
      the pictures haven't been posted on SOHO's website yet (they seem to
      like to take the weekends off like the rest of us), the space weather
      folks are talking about a CME that occurred on 7/4. It came from a
      long-duration C-class flare that happened at 1458 UTC. We may receive
      a glancing blow from it on or about the 10th. The background X-ray
      flux is rising, and both sunspot regions 397 and 400 have the
      capability of generating an M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 88
      SFI : 142
      A index : 21
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 654.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

      IMF : 4.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There
      still exists a fair potential for M-class flare activity from Region
      397 (N12W20) and to a lesser degree, Region 400 (N04E23).

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
      levels for the next 24 hours, falling off to quiet to active levels
      for day two, then returning to unsettled to minor storm levels on day
      three. The coronal hole currently elevating the solar wind speeds will
      rotate out of geoeffective position in the next 24 hours, but that
      will be followed on the third day by a glancing blow from a coronal
      mass ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      06-Jul-2003 0030Z M2.5
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