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Solar Activity Report for 6/18/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME from the X-class flare from sunspot region 386 arrived early this morning,
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 18, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME from the X-class flare from sunspot region 386 arrived early
      this morning, triggering geomagnetic storm conditions. At one time
      today, there was a G-3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm observed, as well as
      an S-1 solar radiation storm. An impressive aurora display was seen
      over Spokane, WA. While conditions have calmed down a bit from that
      level, there is still a G-1 geomagnetic storm in progress. Therefore,
      skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora
      tonight. As I previously mentioned, the high speed solar wind gusts
      from a coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position
      are following close behind the CME that arrived today. Look for that
      to be arriving on Thursday or Friday. Sunspot region 386 remains
      active, and produced a very respectable M-6 class flare late on the
      17th. Don't be surprised to see more flare activity from this sunspot
      as it makes its way across the solar disk.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 99
      SFI : 120
      A index : 45
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 592.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 8.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region
      386 has the potential to produce an isolated major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to
      minor storm levels due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
      Isolated major storm conditions are possible on day one due to the
      potential for transient activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
      should remain above threshold level through the first day of the interval.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Jun-2003 2255Z M6.8
      16-Jun-2003 1200Z M1.7
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