Solar Activity Report for 6/18/03
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The CME from the X-class flare from sunspot region 386 arrived early
this morning, triggering geomagnetic storm conditions. At one time
today, there was a G-3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm observed, as well as
an S-1 solar radiation storm. An impressive aurora display was seen
over Spokane, WA. While conditions have calmed down a bit from that
level, there is still a G-1 geomagnetic storm in progress. Therefore,
skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora
tonight. As I previously mentioned, the high speed solar wind gusts
from a coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position
are following close behind the CME that arrived today. Look for that
to be arriving on Thursday or Friday. Sunspot region 386 remains
active, and produced a very respectable M-6 class flare late on the
17th. Don't be surprised to see more flare activity from this sunspot
as it makes its way across the solar disk.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 99
SFI : 120
A index : 45
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 592.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 8.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.6 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region
386 has the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to
minor storm levels due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
Isolated major storm conditions are possible on day one due to the
potential for transient activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
should remain above threshold level through the first day of the interval.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
17-Jun-2003 2255Z M6.8
16-Jun-2003 1200Z M1.7