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Solar Acticity Report for 6/16/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region 365, which popped off two X-class flares during it s last trip by a few
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 16, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 365, which popped off two X-class flares during it's
      last trip by a few weeks ago, is back, this time renumbered as sunspot
      region 386. Is not unheard of for a sunspot region to remain intact
      for a full rotation of the sun, but it is unusual. And, this active
      sunspot is picking up where it left off, by producing a long duration
      X-1 class flare right around midnight Sunday night. Long duration
      events are typically more likely to produce a CME, and this one was no
      exception. It launched a somewhat lopsided, yet still full-halo CME.
      To me, that's somewhat unexpected, given sunspot region 386's close
      proximity to the eastern limb of the solar disk, but full-halo quality
      of the CME was unmistakable, and it's on its way. Arrival is expected
      either late Wednesday or early Thursday. Following on the heels of
      that CME will be a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
      that has now rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Expect to see
      that on or about the 19th. The background X-ray flux is slowly
      increasing, which is a sign of increasing sunspot activity. Don't be
      surprised if region 386 produces more flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 91
      SFI : 123
      A index : 38
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 519.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 9.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.9 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region
      386 is expected to produce M-class and possibly X-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with a chance
      of isolated minor storm levels. Late on day one or early on day two,
      weak CME shock effects are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA.
      A coronal hole high speed flow is expected late on day two and day
      three with isolated minor storm levels possible.

      Recent significant solar flare actvity :
      16-Jun-2003 1200Z M1.7
      16-Jun-2003 0248Z M1.0
      15-Jun-2003 2356Z X1.5
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