** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Sunspot region 365, which popped off two X-class flares during it's
last trip by a few weeks ago, is back, this time renumbered as sunspot
region 386. Is not unheard of for a sunspot region to remain intact
for a full rotation of the sun, but it is unusual. And, this active
sunspot is picking up where it left off, by producing a long duration
X-1 class flare right around midnight Sunday night. Long duration
events are typically more likely to produce a CME, and this one was no
exception. It launched a somewhat lopsided, yet still full-halo CME.
To me, that's somewhat unexpected, given sunspot region 386's close
proximity to the eastern limb of the solar disk, but full-halo quality
of the CME was unmistakable, and it's on its way. Arrival is expected
either late Wednesday or early Thursday. Following on the heels of
that CME will be a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
that has now rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Expect to see
that on or about the 19th. The background X-ray flux is slowly
increasing, which is a sign of increasing sunspot activity. Don't be
surprised if region 386 produces more flares.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 91
SFI : 123
A index : 38
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 519.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 9.5 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.9 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region
386 is expected to produce M-class and possibly X-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with a chance
of isolated minor storm levels. Late on day one or early on day two,
weak CME shock effects are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA.
A coronal hole high speed flow is expected late on day two and day
three with isolated minor storm levels possible.
Recent significant solar flare actvity :
16-Jun-2003 1200Z M1.7
16-Jun-2003 0248Z M1.0
15-Jun-2003 2356Z X1.5