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Solar Activity Report for 6/14/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** A CME from the recent flare activity struck the Earth s magnetosphere earlier today,
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 14, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      A CME from the recent flare activity struck the Earth's magnetosphere
      earlier today, increasing the solar wind speed and triggering a G-1
      (minor) geomagnetic storm, which is still in progress. Therefore, an
      aurora watch remains in effect. Sunspot region 375, which was the
      source of most of the incredible recent flare activity, has just about
      rotated over the western limb of the solar disk, but not before
      getting off several parting shots, including a power M-7 class flare
      on Friday. Sunspot region 380 seems to be decreasing in size and
      magnetic complexity, and doesn't look like it will be factor for the
      time being. With the departure of sunspot region 375, the background
      X-ray flux has dropped considerably. There was, however, an M-class
      flare recorded earlier on Saturday from just beyond the southeastern
      limb of the solar disk. It will be interesting to see exactly what
      rotates into view in the days ahead. Expect to see generally elevated
      levels of geomagnetic activity for the nect 24 to 48 hours. Later on
      next week, we'll see some high speed solar wind from a coronal hole
      that will soon be rotating into an Earth-pointing position.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 91
      SFI : 134
      A index : 46
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 559.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 6.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
      occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The region from
      beyond the southeast limb is likely to rotate onto the visible disk on
      day one and have M-class potential.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
      levels. Isolated minor storm levels are expected on day one due to
      high speed flow and CME shock effects. By day two activity is expected
      to be at unsettled to active levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      14-Jun-2003 0609Z M1.5
      13-Jun-2003 0645Z M1.8
      13-Jun-2003 0437Z M1.7
      13-Jun-2003 0204Z M3.1
      12-Jun-2003 2127Z M2.6
      12-Jun-2003 1712Z M1.1
      12-Jun-2003 1403Z M1.0
      12-Jun-2003 0130Z M7.3
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