** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The last 48 hours have been an amazing time for solar activity.
Sunspot region 375 is close to rotating over the western limb of the
solar disk, but not before producing, in conjunction with sunspot
region 380, 22 significant flares during the last 48 hours. Yes, I
said 22! At one time on the 11th, the BACKGROUND X-ray flux actually
in the M-class flare category. I've never seen that, even during the
peak of the current sunspot cycle. That was truly remarkable. There
were a fair number of CME's produced, but none big enough to write
home about. Nevertheless, we could likely see a sting of CME arrivals
over the next few days. Combine that with coronal hole effects, and
we could very well see some geomagnetic storm conditions. Therefore,
keep an eye out for some aurora over the next several days. Here's a
view of the Southern Lights as seen from the International Space
Station captured last week.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 168
SFI : 164
A index : 21
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 444.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380
remain capable of producing major flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day
three, with possible active conditions on day two due to elevated
solar wind speeds as a coronal hole passes into geoeffective position.
Active conditions on day two might also be the result of potential
effects of CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity
observed on 11 June 03.
Recent significant solar flare activity (Take a good look at this.
RARELY will you ever see this kind of sustained flare activity) :
12-Jun-2003 2127Z M2.6
12-Jun-2003 1712Z M1.1
12-Jun-2003 1403Z M1.0
12-Jun-2003 0130Z M7.3
11-Jun-2003 2151Z M2.9
11-Jun-2003 2014Z X1.6
11-Jun-2003 1743Z M1.8
11-Jun-2003 1636Z M4.5
11-Jun-2003 1527Z M3.7
11-Jun-2003 1321Z M2.7
11-Jun-2003 1109Z M1.4
11-Jun-2003 1033Z M1.1
11-Jun-2003 0306Z M1.8
10-Jun-2003 2213Z M1.0
10-Jun-2003 1815Z M5.6
10-Jun-2003 1630Z M3.9
10-Jun-2003 1624Z M1.0
10-Jun-2003 1436Z M2.2
10-Jun-2003 1300Z M2.2
10-Jun-2003 1112Z M5.1
10-Jun-2003 0837Z M2.7
10-Jun-2003 0254Z M2.0