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Solar Acticity Report for 6/10/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Solar activity has increased rather dramatically during the last 48 hours, all thanks to sunspot region 375 has banged off a
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 10, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Solar activity has increased rather dramatically during the last 48
      hours, all thanks to sunspot region 375 has banged off a bunch, and I
      do mean a BUNCH, of M-class flares, plus two massive X-class flares,
      over the last couple of days. Curiously enough, however, there
      doesn't seem to be much in the way of CME acticity associated with
      these numerous flares. That's not to say there hasn't been any,
      however, and we may see some CME effects over the next two or three
      days. G-2 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed withing the
      last 48 hours, thanks to the last of the coronal hole solar wind
      stream that has been effecting us for several days now. That should
      be dying out pretty soon. There is a thin, elongated coronal hole
      that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position, and we should see
      some brief high speed solar wind gusts from it on or about the 14th.
      The big story, however, is undoubtedly sunspot region 375. It
      definitely has the capability of firing off a major flare at any time.
      Sunspot region 380 looks like it may also get into the act.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 207
      SFI : 177
      A index : 29
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 703.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 4.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380
      both remain capable of producing a major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with
      isolated periods of minor storm conditions through day one. Quiet to
      unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three as solar wind
      speeds are expected to decrease.

      Recent significant solar flare actviity :
      1q-Jun-2003 0000Z X1.3
      10-Jun-2003 2213Z M1.0
      10-Jun-2003 1815Z M5.6
      10-Jun-2003 1630Z M3.9
      10-Jun-2003 1624Z M1.0
      10-Jun-2003 1436Z M2.2
      10-Jun-2003 1300Z M2.2
      10-Jun-2003 1112Z M5.1
      10-Jun-2003 0837Z M2.7
      10-Jun-2003 0254Z M2.0
      09-Jun-2003 2231Z M1.4
      09-Jun-2003 2139Z X1.5
      09-Jun-2003 1128Z M4.7
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