Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 6/5/03

Expand Messages
  • David
    ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** While an aurora watch remains in effect, we re now in something of a lull period between high-speed solar wind gusts. I say lull,
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 5, 2003
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

      While an aurora watch remains in effect, we're now in something of a
      lull period between high-speed solar wind gusts. I say lull, although
      the solar wind speed is still around the 600 km/sec mark. What is
      happening is that there is a large coronal hole that's in an
      Earth-pointing position. However, the coronal hole is not uniform in
      shape. We caught the high speed solar wind from one part of the
      coronal hole over the last couple of days. Now, we're facing what you
      might call a "gap" in the coronal hole. Starting in about 48 hours,
      we'll come under the influence of the main part of the coronal hole,
      and you can expect the solar wind speed to increase. Solar flare
      activity has stopped for the time being, and there haven't been any
      significant flares in the last 48 hours. However, I'm seeing a slow
      increase in the background X-ray flux, which could be a sign that
      flare activity is getting ready to increase. Sunspot region 375
      remains a threat for more M-class flares, so stay tuned.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 95
      SFI : 114
      A index : 11
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 610.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa

      IMF : 7.4
      IMF Orientation : 3.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair
      chance for an isolated M-class event sometime over the next three
      days. Region 375 is considered to be the most likely source for
      energetic flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled, with a
      chance for some isolated active periods, during the next 24 to 36
      hours. Another coronal hole will move into favorable position sometime
      in the next 36 to 48 hours, and conditions are expected to increase to
      active, most likely beginning late on the second day and lasting
      through the third day.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.