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Solar Activity Report for 6/1/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The conditions you see right now are a good example of what you re likely to see over the
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 1, 2003
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The conditions you see right now are a good example of what you're
      likely to see over the next three days. The solar wind speed is
      elevated, and there's a minor geomagnetic storm in progress.
      Geomagnetic storm conditions will likely be observed on an off through
      the middle of the week. While the CME that I mentioned yesterday
      didn't seem to have a dramatic effect, it did help keep the overall
      level of activity elevated. Sunspot regions 365 and 375 have combined
      to produce several M-class flares over the last 24 hours, including a
      very respectable M-6 class event. Sunspot region 375 is just now
      rotating into view. We'll get a better idea of exactly what we're
      dealing with as more of region 375 becomes visible. As previously
      mentioned, be looking for coronal hole effects on the solar wind speed
      to become visible on or about the 3rd.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 66
      SFI : 112
      A index : 18
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 704.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.9 nPa

      IMF : 10.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 6.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class activity is
      expected from both 365, as it departs the visible disk, and 375 as it
      comes into view. There remains a slight chance of a major flare from
      either region.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with the
      possibility of isolated minor storm periods for the duration of the
      three-day forecast period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is
      expected to influence activity by 03 June.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-Jun-2003 0022Z M6.5
      01-Jun-2003 2105Z M1.0
      01-Jun-2003 1652Z M1.4
      01-Jun-2003 1250Z M1.0
      01-Jun-2003 0711Z M1.0
      01-Jun-2003 0306Z M1.4
      31-May-2003 0224Z M9.3
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