Solar Activity Report for 5/27/03
- ** G-2 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Well, all I can say tonight is WOW! Things have suddenly gotten very
active! The cause for all of the excitement is sunspot region 365.
Apparently, it took a mind to grow very quickly, very fast, and become
very active. There have been six significant flares within last 48
hours, two of which have been major X-class flares. Things could be
quite interesting over the next few days as what may be a string of
CME's strike home. The most recent flare from region 365, a massive
X-3 event, looks like it may be of the long-duration variety. These
events are more likely to kick off CME's, and region 365 is squarely
in an Earth-pointing position. Please stay tuned for further news as
more data from the SOHO satellite becomes available. Now, with all
the action, let's not forget about our old friends the coronal holes.
The Earth is now inside the solar wind stream coming from one, and
there's another one that has rotated into view over the eastern limb
of the solar disk. The combination of sunspot region 365 and coronal
holes may well keep geomagnetic conditions active throughout the rest
of the week.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 116
SFI : 129
A index : 25
K index : 6
Solar wind speed : 532.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : n/a
IMF : 11.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 10.0 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 365
is expected to produce C-class flare and isolated M-class events.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
levels. A coronal hole high speed flow is expected on day one of the
period. Weak CME shock effects are possible on day two and day three
of the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
28-May-2003 0027Z X3.6
27-May-2003 2307Z X1.3
27-May-2003 0626Z M1.6
27-May-2003 0306Z M1.4
26-May-2003 1637Z M1.0
26-May-2003 0550Z M1.9