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Solar Activity Report for 5/18/03

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  • David
    On an unrelated note before I begin, if for whatever reason you were unable to see the lunar eclipse, look here for some great pictures :
    Message 1 of 1 , May 18, 2003
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      On an unrelated note before I begin, if for whatever reason you were
      unable to see the lunar eclipse, look here for some great pictures :
      http://www.spaceweather.com/eclipses/gallery_15may03_page2.html .

      The solar wind speed had calmed down quite a bit from the recent high
      speed gusts that seemn to have become the norm as of late. There's
      been a procession of coronal holes that has continued for quite a
      number of weeks. So, why should now be any different?! While the
      solar wind speed has slowed down, it is still hanging above the 400
      km/sec mark, and as of right now, the density is remarkably high. I
      suspect we're seeing some light solar wind gusts from a small, very
      thin coronal hole that rotated through an Earth-pointing position a
      couple of days ago. Or, it could be that we're seeing the shock wave
      preceeding the gusts. Sometimes a high speed solar wind will "pile
      up" particles from a slower solar wind in front of it, causing the an
      increased solar wind density. At any rate, continuing the coronal
      hole parade is another larger coronal hole that should be in an
      Earth-pointing position very soon. Look for the high speed solar wind
      from that one to arrive on or about the 21st. A few small sunspot
      regions are visible, but the background X-ray flux remains low, and
      none of the sunspots appear to have any significant flare-generating
      potential.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 81
      SFI : 102
      A index : 10
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 429.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 16.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 5.3 nPa

      IMF : 4.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.4 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in
      activity over the next few days due to returning regions emerging from
      the east limb.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled on day one, with
      active conditions possible on days two and three of the period due to
      a coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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