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Solar Activity Report for 5/15/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** While there isn t a geomagnetic storm in progress right this minute, the last 48 hours have seen almost constant geomagnetic storm
    Message 1 of 4 , May 13, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      While there isn't a geomagnetic storm in progress right this minute,
      the last 48 hours have seen almost constant geomagnetic storm
      conditions of either G-1 or G-2 intensity. The cause, as previously
      mentioned, is high speed solar wind eminating from a large coronal
      hole. Right now the solar wind speed is on the high side of 800
      km/sec. The current conditions should last about another 48 hours,
      and then we should see the solar wind speed decline as the Earth exits
      the high speed solar wind stream. The sunspot number is up slightly,
      albeit still pretty low. There are four small numbered sunspot
      regions visible. For the time being, none appear capable of producing
      a significant flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 66
      SFI : 96
      A index : 28
      A index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 804.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.3 nPa

      IMF : 6.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 24 hours. A new
      active area on the east limb (returning Region 336 at latitude N13)
      appears to be fairly well developed, and may effect an increased
      chance of isolated C-class flares in the following days.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
      levels for the next two days, falling off to unsettled to active on
      day three. The current coronal hole is rotating out of geoeffective
      position. With that, the associated high-speed solar wind stream
      should abate.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • David
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Before I get to the solar activity report, there s something happening tonight that you really should see if you have clear skies.
      Message 2 of 4 , May 15, 2003
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        ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

        Before I get to the solar activity report, there's something happening
        tonight that you really should see if you have clear skies. There's a
        total lunar eclipse! Wander outside and give it a look.
        Unfortunately, all I can see is rain and clouds!

        The solar wind speed is still well above the 600 km/sec mark, and
        aurora are a possibility tonight. Overall, however, activity is
        winding down, and is expected to continue to do so over the next few
        days. The Earth is exiting a high speed solar wind stream, and the
        solar wind speed is slowly declining. This is probably the last night
        there will be a solid possibility of aurora unless something
        unexpected happens. Now, there is a small coronal hole that's in an
        Earth-pointing position, and we might see some brief solar wind gusts
        along or about the 19th, although I'm not really expecting much from
        it. The sunspot number has increased a little, as has the backgroud
        X-ray flux. However, none of the sunspot regions visible look at have
        any real potential for generating significant flares at this time.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 97
        SFI : 99
        A index : 22
        K index : 3

        Solar wind speed : 625.0 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa

        IMF : 3.9 nT
        IMF Orientation : 2.1 nT North

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in
        activity over the next few days due to active regions emerging from
        the east limb. New region 362 may produce isolated flare activity.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
        for the next three days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce
        over the next few days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on
        day one.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
      • Mike Doran
        I did get to see it. What I am waiting on is what gravity waves may have come of it, and perhaps to get a picture of cosmic ray flux on cloud behavior as a
        Message 3 of 4 , May 16, 2003
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          I did get to see it.

          What I am waiting on is what "gravity waves" may have come of it, and
          perhaps to get a picture of cosmic ray flux on cloud behavior as a
          result!


          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:
          > ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
          >
          > Before I get to the solar activity report, there's something
          happening
          > tonight that you really should see if you have clear skies.
          There's a
          > total lunar eclipse! Wander outside and give it a look.
          > Unfortunately, all I can see is rain and clouds!
          >
          > The solar wind speed is still well above the 600 km/sec mark, and
          > aurora are a possibility tonight. Overall, however, activity is
          > winding down, and is expected to continue to do so over the next few
          > days. The Earth is exiting a high speed solar wind stream, and the
          > solar wind speed is slowly declining. This is probably the last
          night
          > there will be a solid possibility of aurora unless something
          > unexpected happens. Now, there is a small coronal hole that's in an
          > Earth-pointing position, and we might see some brief solar wind
          gusts
          > along or about the 19th, although I'm not really expecting much from
          > it. The sunspot number has increased a little, as has the backgroud
          > X-ray flux. However, none of the sunspot regions visible look at
          have
          > any real potential for generating significant flares at this time.
          >
          > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
          >
          > NOAA sunspot number : 97
          > SFI : 99
          > A index : 22
          > K index : 3
          >
          > Solar wind speed : 625.0 km/sec
          > Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
          > Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa
          >
          > IMF : 3.9 nT
          > IMF Orientation : 2.1 nT North
          >
          > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
          > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
          >
          > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
          > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
          >
          > Solar activity forecast :
          > Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in
          > activity over the next few days due to active regions emerging from
          > the east limb. New region 362 may produce isolated flare activity.
          >
          > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
          > The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active
          levels
          > for the next three days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce
          > over the next few days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on
          > day one.
          >
          > Recent significant solar flare activity :
          > None
        • mike
          http://www.campaignexxonmobil.org/pdf/Financial.pdf Very official looking info in appearance and source. A British insurance industry expert claims that $
          Message 4 of 4 , May 17, 2003
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            http://www.campaignexxonmobil.org/pdf/Financial.pdf

            Very official looking info in appearance and source. A British
            insurance industry expert claims that $ losses due to natural
            disaster is rising 12% per an. while average world GDP growth weighs
            in at a puny 3% per an. Since RATES of growth are dealt with, we are
            dealing with those nasty exponential (interest rate growth) curves
            again.

            12 to 3 in this racket is rough: "..value of damage
            due to natural hazards could exceed the world's wealth by 2065".
            Simply put, damage losses outstrip growth and by a big margin.

            Even if all this is due to Mother Nature's natural cycles and has
            nothing to do with CO2 level increases, it seems that prudence alone
            should be sounding a wake up call to try to get a handle on the
            problem. Of course, my view is that it is a double wammy of poor growth
            planning respecting Gaia and defects in living earth feedbacks changing
            EMF patterns.
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