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Solar Activity Report for 5/3/03

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  • David
    The solar wind speed has dropped into the low 400 s, and things are relatively quiet tonight as we await the arrival of the next round of high speed solar
    Message 1 of 4 , May 3, 2003
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      The solar wind speed has dropped into the low 400's, and things are
      relatively quiet tonight as we await the arrival of the next round of
      high speed solar wind, which is due to arrive in two or three days. A
      fairly good-sized coronal hole has rotated into an Earth-pointing
      position, and will be the source of the aforementioned high speed
      solar wind. Sunspot region 349 continues to be easily the largest
      sunspot region visible, stretching 10 Earth-diameters from end to end.
      It has a moderately tangled magnetic field, and is a potential source
      for M-class flares. An M-class flare was observed on May 2nd, coming
      from the sunspot region 345-349 complex. We may see the sujnspot
      number undergo a steady decline in the days ahead. Several sunspot
      regions are getting close to the western limb of the solar disk, and
      there are ver sunspot regions rotating into view to replace them, at
      least for the time being.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 134
      SFI : 148
      A index : 12
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 427.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 2.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 349 has the
      potential for continued C-class flares as well as an isolated M-class
      event.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
      conditions for 04 May. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for
      05 May-06 May as a result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-May-2003 0308Z M1.0
    • mike
      This was a very interesting TIMED tornadic outbreak, much like May 3, 1999. Watching on large scale radar you could see the relational position of the storm to
      Message 2 of 4 , May 5, 2003
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        This was a very interesting TIMED tornadic outbreak, much like May 3,
        1999.

        Watching on large scale radar you could see the relational position of
        the storm to the north EMF.

        Understand this time of year the tropics start to warm but the poles
        remain somewhat fridgid--or at least cold enough so that near the north
        EMF iso bar sorting and signaling can occur and be amplified by the
        cirrus enhancement. Put another way, if there were strong convection
        further north, the charge separations would be strong enough regionally
        to produce their own regional field--unorganized by the earth's EMF.
        BUT, where it is timed like this, the field can be organized and
        amplified at the same time.

        Once the storm itself is presented, then all that is required is for a
        point EMF to form relative to the storm. These occur because of the
        differences in the basins, or the North Pacific, GOC, GOM, and North
        Pacific, how the Doran waves bounce off these regions and produce
        concentrations of positive ion concentrations in the "Alley". We have
        seen a fairly active N. Atlantic this year, so it should be no surprise
        that the severe weather was slightly more east than say 1999. Of course,
        some things like flaring, moon dynamics on the atmosphere's dielectric,
        and bio activity will all play, but this time of year is most known for
        the signal to noise issue.

        What is interesting to me is how Milankovitch plays in this. Traditional
        meterology/climatology looking soley at solar insOlation would miss it--
        that as the orbital changes occur, so do the ratios.

        As always, the biosphere modulates these varying outputs--to maintain a
        living earth.

        If you don't understand EMFs, cirrus and infra red dynamics, and the
        relational biosphere that modulates these EMFs--you won't be state of
        the science in climate or meterology w/in 5 years.

        +++++++++++++

        Politically, w/ campaign finance in the can, look for 4 billion spent by
        Bush to beat Hillary.

        Fascism is not fair, smart, free, or even conservative.


        -----Original Message-----
        From: "David" <b1blancer1@...>
        To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
        Date: Sun, 04 May 2003 04:20:13 -0000
        Subject: [Methane Hydrate Club] Solar Activity Report for 5/3/03

        > <html><body>
        >
        >
        > <tt>
        > The solar wind speed has dropped into the low 400's, and things are<BR>
        > relatively quiet tonight as we await the arrival of the next round
        > of<BR>
        > high speed solar wind, which is due to arrive in two or three
        > days.  A<BR>
        > fairly good-sized coronal hole has rotated into an Earth-pointing<BR>
        > position, and will be the source of the aforementioned high speed<BR>
        > solar wind.  Sunspot region 349 continues to be easily the
        > largest<BR>
        > sunspot region visible, stretching 10 Earth-diameters from end to
        > end.<BR>
        > It has a moderately tangled magnetic field, and is a potential
        > source<BR>
        > for M-class flares.  An M-class flare was observed on May 2nd,
        > coming<BR>
        > from the sunspot region 345-349 complex.  We may see the
        > sujnspot<BR>
        > number undergo a steady decline in the days ahead.  Several
        > sunspot<BR>
        > regions are getting close to the western limb of the solar disk,
        > and<BR>
        > there are ver sunspot regions rotating into view to replace them,
        > at<BR>
        > least for the time being.<BR>
        > <BR>
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are : <BR>
        > <BR>
        > NOAA sunspot number : 134<BR>
        > SFI : 148<BR>
        > A index : 12<BR>
        > K index : 2<BR>
        > <BR>
        > Solar wind speed : 427.3 km/sec<BR>
        > Solar wind density : 4.0 protons/cc<BR>
        > Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa<BR>
        > <BR>
        > IMF : 2.5 nT<BR>
        > IMF Orientation : 0.6 nT North<BR>
        > <BR>
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours : <BR>
        > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. <BR>
        > <BR>
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours : <BR>
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio<BR>
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.<BR>
        > <BR>
        > Solar activity forecast : <BR>
        > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 349 has
        > the<BR>
        > potential for continued C-class flares as well as an isolated
        > M-class<BR>
        > event.<BR>
        > <BR>
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast : <BR>
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled<BR>
        > conditions for 04 May. Unsettled to active conditions are possible
        > for<BR>
        > 05 May-06 May as a result of activity from a recurrent coronal
        > hole.<BR>
        > <BR>
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :<BR>
        > 02-May-2003 0308Z M1.0  <BR>
        > <BR>
        > </tt>
        >
        > <br>
        >
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      • David
        ... spent by ... I thought Hillary had decided to pass this time around.
        Message 3 of 4 , May 5, 2003
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          >
          > Politically, w/ campaign finance in the can, look for 4 billion
          spent by
          > Bush to beat Hillary.
          >

          I thought Hillary had decided to pass this time around.
        • mike
          She changed her mind. That four billion figure is for all of the elections, including presidential. It s based on the off year spending in 2002. ... From:
          Message 4 of 4 , May 6, 2003
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            She changed her mind.

            That four billion figure is for all of the elections, including
            presidential. It's based on the off year spending in 2002.

            -----Original Message-----
            From: "David" <b1blancer1@...>
            To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
            Date: Tue, 06 May 2003 03:19:45 -0000
            Subject: Re: [Methane Hydrate Club] Solar Activity Report for 5/3/03

            > <html><body>
            >
            >
            > <tt>
            > <BR>
            > > <BR>
            > > Politically, w/ campaign finance in the can, look for 4
            > billion<BR>
            > spent by <BR>
            > > Bush to beat Hillary. <BR>
            > > <BR>
            > <BR>
            > I thought Hillary had decided to pass this time around.<BR>
            > <BR>
            > </tt>
            >
            > <br>
            >
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            > S=1705083601:HM/A=1482387/R=0/*http://ads.x10.com/?bHlhaG9vaG0xLmRhd=10
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