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Solar Activity Report for 5/1/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed is hovering over the 600 km/sec mark, and G-2 geomagnetic storms have been recorded within the last 24 hours
    Message 1 of 1 , May 1, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed is hovering over the 600 km/sec mark, and G-2
      geomagnetic storms have been recorded within the last 24 hours as a
      high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole buffets earth's
      magnetosphere. Some beautiful aurora have been spotted and
      photographed, as can be seen from these images captured in several
      locations across the northern US and Canada :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01apr03_page2.html
      . The solar wind speed is expected to stay elevated for about another
      24 hours before slacking off. A G-1 magnetic storm in the period
      wouldn't be a surprise. The speed is then expected to start
      increasing again around the 6th or 7th due to another coronal hole
      that's rotating into an Earth-pointing position. The sunspot number
      is up tonight, and several sunspots can be seen on the solar disk.
      Easily the largest of the bunch is sunspot region 349, which now spans
      more than ten Earth diameters from end to end. It has a moderately
      complicated magnetic field, and has the potential of producing an
      M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 171
      SFI : 149
      A index : 34
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 631.7 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 6.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 349 is
      expected to produce C-class flares and has the potential for M-class
      flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
      levels. Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue through day
      one of the period with active to minor storm levels expected. On day
      two and day three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active
      levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-May-2003 0305Z M1.0
      29-Apr-2003 0459Z M1.1
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