Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 4/25/03

Expand Messages
  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed is still elevated, geomagnetic storms are being observed, and the flares just keep on a comin! Due to
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 25 11:14 PM
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed is still elevated, geomagnetic storms are being
      observed, and the flares just keep on a'comin! Due to corononal hole
      effects, the solar wind speed is in the mid-400 range tonight. That's
      expected to continue, and quite possibly increase over the next two or
      three days. Therefore, an aurora watch remains in effect. We will
      also start seeing a series of relatively weak CME shock wave passages
      over the next three days from the series of M-class flares that
      sunspot region 338 has provided, along with one flare from sunspot
      region 346. None of them will be very strong, but there should be at
      least some effect from them. Exactly how much remains to be seen.
      Sunspot region 338 is approaching the western limb of the solar disk,
      and won't be around much longer. Despite the M-class flare from
      region 346, region 338 is the only one that really looks to have any
      decent flare-producing potential for the time being.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 173
      SFI : 144
      A index : 26
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 456.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 5.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
      occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338
      remains capable of producing M-class events.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the
      period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by
      transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the
      M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are
      possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24
      April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on
      day two into day three.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      25-Apr-2003 0540Z M1.2
      24-Apr-2003 1253Z M3.3
      23-Apr-2003 1556Z M2.0
      23-Apr-2003 0106Z M5.1
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.