** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed is still elevated, geomagnetic storms are being
observed, and the flares just keep on a'comin! Due to corononal hole
effects, the solar wind speed is in the mid-400 range tonight. That's
expected to continue, and quite possibly increase over the next two or
three days. Therefore, an aurora watch remains in effect. We will
also start seeing a series of relatively weak CME shock wave passages
over the next three days from the series of M-class flares that
sunspot region 338 has provided, along with one flare from sunspot
region 346. None of them will be very strong, but there should be at
least some effect from them. Exactly how much remains to be seen.
Sunspot region 338 is approaching the western limb of the solar disk,
and won't be around much longer. Despite the M-class flare from
region 346, region 338 is the only one that really looks to have any
decent flare-producing potential for the time being.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 173
SFI : 144
A index : 26
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 456.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 5.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338
remains capable of producing M-class events.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the
period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by
transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the
M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are
possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24
April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on
day two into day three.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
25-Apr-2003 0540Z M1.2
24-Apr-2003 1253Z M3.3
23-Apr-2003 1556Z M2.0
23-Apr-2003 0106Z M5.1