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Solar Activity Report for 4/23/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Let s see now, we ve got sunspots, flares, high speed solar wind, coronal holes, geomagnetic storms, and approaching CME s. I d
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 23 8:30 PM
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Let's see now, we've got sunspots, flares, high speed solar wind,
      coronal holes, geomagnetic storms, and approaching CME's. I'd say
      we've got just about anything you could ask for! The solar wind speed
      remains elevated from continued coronal hole affects, and G-1
      geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
      hours. There is a small coronal hole in an Earth-pointing position,
      and the solar wind speed will remain elevated for at least the next
      couple of days. Sunspot region 338 has been active, having fired off
      3 M-class flares so far. The largest to date was a very respectable
      M-5 event which happened today. Associated with this flare was a
      decent-sized CME. While the bulk of it was not Earth-directed, there
      was at least a faint halo component to it. Whatever effects we get
      from it should be arriving on or about the 25th. We could also be in
      for a weak encounter caused by the arrival of the CME from the M2.8
      flare of 4/21, although I don't expect to see much of an effect from
      it. Look for the possibility of more M-class flares from sunspot
      region 338 as it continues across the solar disk.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 152
      SFI : 133
      A index : 16
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 456.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa

      IMF : 4.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338
      maintains potential for further M-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
      levels. Ongoing high speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced
      by transient flow over the next three days. Weak impact from the April
      22, M2 flare and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher
      probability for CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and
      associated CME that occurred early this period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      23-Apr-2003 1556Z M2.0
      23-Apr-2003 0106Z M5.1
      21-Apr-2003 1307Z M2.8
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