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Solar Activity Report for 4/21/03

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  • David
    Ok, remember the stuff I said in my last report about how things would be quieting down unless something unexpected happened? It happened. Actually, a couple
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 21 9:08 PM
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      Ok, remember the stuff I said in my last report about how things would
      be quieting down unless something unexpected happened? It happened.
      Actually, a couple of somethings happened. First of all, the solar
      wind speed is staying close to the 600 km/sec mark, and doesn't show
      any signs of slowing down. I think I know why. There is a small
      coronal hole that's in an Earth-pointing position, and I think it's
      sending some high speed solar wind gusts out way. The official
      forecasts said it was too far north on the solar disk to affect us,
      but I had my suspicions about that. The southern end of it is not far
      from the solar equator, and I had a feeling we might get something
      from it. By all rights, I probably should have put an aurora watch
      into effect, as I wouldn't really be surprised if some high latitude
      aurora were observed tonight. The was a G-1 gaomagnetic storm within
      the last 24 hours. The second thing that happened was a nice M-2
      class flare from sunspot region 338. The official reports are saying
      that there was a partial-halo CME associated with the event, although
      I looked at the SOHO coronagraph imagery and I'll be danged if I can
      see it. Still, however, it's entirely possible there was one, as the
      folks at the Goddard Spaceflight Center in Greenbelt, MD where they
      analyze the SOHO images have a lot more sophisticated stuff to look at
      them with. The CME, if there was one, should be delivering at least a
      glancing blow in 48 - 72 hours. Just when you though things were
      getting boring!

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 154
      SFI : 126
      A index : 18
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 577.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 7.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.3 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
      occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class
      flare is possible from Regions 337 or 338.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
      through day one. Minor storm periods are possible on days two and
      three with the anticipated arrival of the CME from today's M2 flare.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      21-Apr-2003 1307Z M2.8
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